AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Final Bets

My Final Thoughts: The 2021 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Final Betting Card, OAD, And DFS Plays

A few days have passed since I wrote up my Tournament Preview, and to my dismay, they’re still keeping the AT&T Pro-Am name for this event, despite there being no amateurs. In the name of logic, I’m just going to use the #ATTPro hashtag for this whole tournament going forward. If less people see my tweets, so be it, that’s a sacrifice I can live with in protest, and I invite you to join with me.

After starting this week having no care for this event, it’s started to grow on me. I love me some Pebble Beach. I bought a $1,000 set of M5 irons in 2019 paid in full with the profits Gary Woodland yielded me at the US Open. That pre-dated my Fantasy National tenure, so with the help of a little more #data on our side this week, maybe I can upgrade the Woods and Wedges with another Pebble Beach mega profit. Let’s review!

Outrights

  • Daniel Berger +2000
  • Francesco Molinari +3300
  • Cameron Tringale +6600
  • Doug Ghim +9000
  • Michael Thompson +12500
  • Vaughn Taylor +25000

This week, I wrote up every bet in either Bombs & Values or Faves & Fades. I’m pretty jazzed about the +2000 number on Daniel Berger, as that was up for about a minute before it went down to +1800, and later +1400. With the exception of Vaughn Taylor, this whole list has seen its odds plummet after DJ withdrew, so we should have a nice edge coming into play. If Daniel Berger is not in the Top 10 going into Sunday, I will be shocked.

Matchups

  • Kevin Streelman +120 > Will Zalatoris
  • Rickie Fowler -120 > Alex Noren
  • Daniel Berger -136 > Paul Casey

Good showing on matchups last week at the WMPO. We finished 2-1 last week, and would have been a 3-0 sweep if not for a 5-stroke Sunday swing between Kuchar and Knox. We’re now 9-6-1 on Matchups through the first 5 events of the year. I’m so confident in this week’s plays, I’ve parlayed them +600.

Streelman over Zalatoris is my favorite play this week. A veteran with solid recent form and an impeccable course history pitted against the young prodigy with relatively no Pebble Beach experience. I wrote up Zalatoris as a fade this week and given his shortcomings in Driving accuracy and Putting, my money is on him missing the cut. Streelman on the other hand stacks up as a pretty safe T20 play this week.

I was dangerously close to playing Rickie this week. I didn’t bet him because the Putting’s been bad and the event history is a question mark. But in a 1v1 with Alex Noren, count me in. Rickie’s recent form T2G has been popping, and I think a wet, rainy course will actually do him some good to correct the Putting. Noren on the other hand has been all over the place with his recent stats and doesn’t really pop in any of the key stats this week. Rickie’s 45/1 to win, Noren is 66/1. Easy call for me.

This is me doubling down on Daniel Berger. He’s the guy I expect to win the golf tournament this week, so I was going to play him against whoever the books faced him off with. Paul Casey’s ball striking lines up perfectly here, but so does Berger’s, and Berger gets a massive edge in Putting. I know Casey’s riding in here off a victory, but this ain’t the Euro Tour anymore!

Props

  • Will Zalatoris to MC +250

Not to beat a dead horse, but Will Zalatoris (who I love as a person and player) stacks up terribly for the key stats you need to succeed here (Accuracy OTT, Putting, Course History). He’s also a notorious slow starter, so I’m betting on Thursday and Friday at two different courses to be his downfall this week before he has a chance to kick into gear on the weekend.

One And Done

  • Cameron Tringale

Did not start the week thinking I’d land here, but for a lot of different reasons, I feel good about it.

The Field is terrible, and the purse isn’t huge. I’m going to go out on a limb and say Cameron Tringale will not be better than 45/1 odds to win another tournament this year. And because of the purse, I’ll save the big guys up top, Cantlay and Berger, for a bigger event and let the rest of the field eat up the ownership there this week. I think Phil, Streelman, Day, Casey, Zalatoris and Spieth will also command ownership in OAD this week and besides Streelman and Casey, I can make a strong case against all of them. When I narrowed it down between Streelman, Casey, and Tringale, it was pretty clear Tringale would come at the lowest ownership, so I let game theory make the final call.

He’s made the cut at this event in 6 of his last 7 trips and comes in with arguably his best form yet. There’s a good chance a random name comes out and wins this tournament, so I’ll keep my silver bullets in the holster for later and use a high-upside guy I’d never otherwise consider the rest of the season.

DFS Core

  • Daniel Berger ($10,100)
  • Peter Malnati ($7,800)
  • Vaughn Taylor ($7,000)

This is a real motley crew. I have to get Berger in my DFS lineups and the $6K guys really don’t jump out to me. If Berger does go highly owned, Vaughn Taylor north of $6K most certainly will not, and he ranks out well in all the key stat categories this week to go along with his past win here. Peter Malnati is a scoring machine and does not belong in the $7K range. This core still gives some flexibility if you want to go up and grab Cantlay too, you’ll just have to delve into the dreaded $6Ks to afford.