John Deere Classic Prop, Lock. & Drop It

2021 John Deere Classic – Prop Lock & Drop It: Breaking Down This Week’s 3 Best Prop Bets

We are back with more props for the John Deere Classic after a one week hiatus. In hindsight, it kind of sucks I skipped the props at the Rocket Mortgage because it might have been the best my player pool’s ever finished this year, primarily the value guys I always look to throw placing bets on. I played one lineup last week in the $33 Dogleg Single Entry and despite Bryson’s best efforts to crash the party, it still finished 56th thanks to Cam Davis, Troy Merritt, Jason Kokrak, Patton Kizzire, and Sebastian Munoz. So while I regret not getting those placement bets in on Davis, Merritt, and Kizzire, we’re still coming off a great week, looking to find similar success again at the John Deere Classic with these props.

Best Matchup Value (At + Odds)

Seamus Power (+106) > Aaron Wise (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Unlucky Power still hoping to head for Hills -

Aaron Wise stinks. That’s how I feel about it. It was his third missed 2-footer while in contention at the Honda Classic that inked his way onto my black list short list, where he still currently resides next to Mr. Matthew NeSmith. I don’t care what the numbers say about Wise’s ball striking and birdie making ability, I refuse to back somebody who is arguably the worst putter in this field (#134 SG: P, L50) in a pure putting contest. And I’m sure as hell not going back him in a 1v1 with Seamus Power, who over the last 12 rounds, rates out better in SG: BS (4th), and is amongst the top of the field in Putting (25th).

Power has the upper hand in terms of Course History, with two T25s and no MCs in three career appearances at the John Deere Classic compared to Wise, who missed the cut in his last appearance and fired a T16 in his only other trip back in 2016. In terms of Recent Form, Power also has the edge riding four consecutive T20s. Seamus Power also comes in highly motivated as he’s currently on the outside looking in at the FedEx Cup Playoffs, so a strong showing in this weak field could seal the deal for him to secure more permanent Tour status with so few other opportunities remaining on the schedule.

Safest Prop (-120 or Better)

Alex Noren (-106) > Cam Davis (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Player Profile: Alex Noren | National Club Golfer

It is kind of fucked up of me to bet on Cam Davis’ demise just one week after he so graciously put an end to my outright drought at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. But, hangovers are very real when it comes to following up a PGA Tour victory, especially when it’s your first PGA Tour victory, and that’s rarely factored into odds. On the contrary, Davis’ odds are now inflated to the 6th lowest outright number on the board at 30/1, one week removed from opening at 160/1 in Detroit. While Alex Noren is also coming off an emotional high with his 4th place finish last week, it likely took significantly less of a toll on him, as he came into Sunday 5 strokes off the lead. But a Sunday 64 should have given him plenty of confidence to come to TPC Deere Run and continue that strong play, especially considering he ranks 6th in Easy Course Scoring and 11th in Short Course Scoring.

Using the FanShareSports Head2Head tool, Noren is head and shoulders above Davis in terms of Recent Form T2G (14th), Course Suitability (6th), and Scoring on Bent Grass (24th). And just approaching this anecdotally, a short, second shot course that levels the playing field for fairway finders and emphasizes Approach + Putting is far more suited for a player like Noren than it is Davis, who stands to compete best on bombers courses that reward distance at the expense of accuracy off the tee.

Best T20 Value

Roger Sloan +400 (DK Sportsbook)

Canadian Roger Sloan finishes T2 for career best PGA TOUR result - Golf  Canada

What more do you want from Roger Sloan at these odds in the Top 20 market? He’s never finished outside the Top 20 in either of his two career John Deere Classic appearances, he’s a Top 20 Ball Striker, he’s Top 20 overall in my model this week, and he has finished inside the Top 25 in 4 of his last 10 starts. He may be chalk in DFS this week, but that’s for good reason, and ownership doesn’t make a difference when we’re all cashing 4x on Roger Sloan in the T20 market this week. You can check out more stats to like on him in this week’s Bombs & Values article.