Bombs & Values Palmetto Championship

2021 Palmetto Championship Bombs & Values: The 3 Best Value Plays For Your DFS Lineups and Betting Cards

I am proud to say that after a full two days since writing the Tournament Preview, I still do not care about the Palmetto Championship. Usually after I invest this amount of preliminary research into a tournament, I eventually get hooked and put a regrettable amount of units on the line anyway. Not this week, I won’t do it! Ian Poulter being the 6th highest priced DFS player at a bombers’ course disgusts me, Patton Kizzire at $9,100 is an insulting proposition, and Scott Stallings’ singular T20 finish within the last 8 months is good enough for a $8,100 price tag? I hate it here.

But, as much as I hate it, I’ve done all this research and don’t want to waste it, so the Bombs & Values show goes on, just reduced down to a modest list of 3 DFS Values and 3 Betting Bombs. A majority of the community will use this week to save up units for the US Open and get some extra Torrey Pines research in, and if that’s the case, there should be some softer DFS slates to take advantage of.

It certainly has the feel of a bombs week, doesn’t it? I mean somebody has to win it, even if there are only 5 or so legitimate professional golfers in this field and each of their minds are set on next week’s Major championship, so my money is on the field 50/1+. With that said, it still feels like a better week to go hunting for betting bombs than super low DFS values, because the bottom of the barrel in this week’s field is downright awful.

The more I’ve read into this week, the more I expect it to be decided with short game, specifically the putting. This is a bona fide second shot course with giant greens and collection areas around them that encourage the Texas Wedge, so players should have the putter in hand often. Because of that, I see some good opportunity to rely on putting specialists who can avoid 3 putts and make birdies, especially on Bermuda greens, so that’s the general profile I’m looking for with these value plays.

DFS Values

Colombian Camilo Villegas goes by the nickname "Spiderman." | Pga tour  golf, Pro golf, Sports

Pricing from Draft Kings

Camilo Villegas ($7,600)

I don’t expect Villegas to be especially popular this week, currently projecting just 6% ownership, but he has the make up of everything I’m looking for in a player to have success at Congaree, distance aside. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks inside the Top 40 in 3-Putt Avoidance, SG: P – Bermuda, and SG: P – Firm & Fast, which is huge in a week where I expect Putting will be the difference maker. In addition to the strong putting numbers, he also ranks 18th SG: APP, 5th SG: ARG, and 7th Scrambling, so assuming this becomes a second shot course that levels the playing field for weaker players OTT, Villegas is set up well to capitalize from the fairways.

Villegas has finished in the Top 25 in each of his last 4 starts on Bermuda grass, with a T11 at Valspar, T25 at the RBC Heritage, T17 at Valero, and T8 at the Honda Classic. In those 4 starts, he’s gained over 15 strokes putting combined, so that trend stacks up well to continue at another pure Bermuda track this week at Congaree.

Chase Seiffert ($6,500)

Chase Seiffert has officially broken the record for most Bombs & Values features on thepgatout.com. That is a testament to a few factors:

  1. Draft Kings’ refusal to change his price regardless of his performance
  2. Seiffert’s ability to crush key stat metrics without really translating them to notable finishes
  3. My stubbornness to only see the potential in him and ignore what the results say

I’m not saying Chase Seiffert is Sam Burns, but what I am saying is that before Burns broke out for his first win, we all saw that it was coming based on what the stats and models were telling us, even if it took some time to materialize. With Seiffert, we have the #15 player in the field SG: TOT L36, and yet he still sits at $6,500. He’s picked up 4 T20 finishes in his 12 2021 starts, which is more than most any other player you’ll find in the $6K range this week. Bermuda is Seiffert’s preferred putting surface, where he ranks 21st SG: P, and he ranks out similarly on Firm & Fast greens at 23rd in this field. He’s also the only player in the field this week that ranks Top 30 in SG: APP and Bermuda & Firm/Fast putting.

Beyond the Approach and Putting prowess, it’s also encouraging to see Seiffert rate out in the Top 25 in Birdies or Better Gained, Good Drives Gained, GIRs Gained, and Par 4 Scoring. With all the mediocre names around him in this range, it’s easy to see the upside in Seiffert this week in DFS, especially at just 4% projected ownership.

Ricky Barnes ($6,200)

I warned you it was going to get ugly down here, but I’d be remiss not to throw Barnes’ hat in the ring this week after he ranked out 5th overall in my model, the same model that spit out Hatton, DJ, Brooks, and Fitzpatrick as the only players ahead of him. So how did he get here? Over the last 36 rounds, Barnes ranks Top 20 in SG: T2G, SG: APP, and SG: P on Firm & Fast Greens, the three most important stats of the week for me. Now, take with a grain of salt that 4 events over his L36 rounds were not measured with ShotLink, so the Approach numbers are somewhat inflated by the 7.5 strokes he gained at the Safeway back in September, but at $6,200, it’s still encouraging to know the potential is there for Barnes to get hot.

Barnes is definitely worth a look for anyone mass-entering GPP lineups this week, as the upside is there at this discount price, and he’s all but guaranteed to be <1% owned. He’s a reliable putter on Firm & Fast Greens where he ranks 13th, and is 2nd in 3-Putt Avoidance on the same greens. He’s also 16th in GIRs Gained and 9th in Opportunities Gained, so if the putter cooperates on these Firm & Fast greens like it has in the past, Barnes will have high DK Scoring upside. He’s all but a lock to make my FRL card, and depending on how many lineups I make this week, he’ll be a strong consideration as a salary saver for me as well.

Betting Bombs

Peter Uihlein secures PGA TOUR card with win at Nationwide Children's  Hospital Championship

Luke List (+8000)

Luke List was popping in my research for a number of reasons, but it wasn’t until I learned he owns the Course Record at Congaree Golf Club that I went over the top to place an outright on him myself.

I looked into a variety of different comp courses on the PGA Tour which had overlapping qualities to Congaree to help project for this week. That list included Sea Island, Quail Hollow, PGA National, Bay Hill, and Corales. Luke List has 8 T10 finishes across those comp courses, which includes a T10 at every single one; he is behind only Tyrrell Hatton in terms of SG: TOT at Congaree Comp Courses.

In order for any sensible person to even consider betting Luke List, it should be on a bomber’s track, so that he can exploit his advantage as one of the longest hitters on Tour (4th in Driving Distance in this field), at the expense of his inaccuracy off the tee (123rd Driving Accuracy). Since Congaree offers some of the most forgiving fairways on Tour, Luke’s off to a perfect start here. The next thing we know about Congaree is that it’s a second shot course, so it’s nice to see List rank out 17th in SG: APP in this field. Assuming the irons are dialed in, List should be able to hit these large greens in regulation at a high clip, which means the week will come down to putting with him, where he ranks 116th. The good news is, however, that he’s shown signs of life on Bermuda grass in particular. List has gained 1.6+ strokes putting in 5 of his last 8 events played on Bermuda grass; his Bermuda putting ranks unfortunately won’t reflect that, as he has lost 3.9, 5.4, and 5.5 strokes putting in those other 3 Bermuda contests. Suffice to say, we’re either getting a great putting display or an awful one from List, and if it’s great, the rest of the game is unquestionably there for him to make a run at the Palmetto Championship.

Peter Uihlein (+12500)

Throw up the U!

No, Uihlein is not a Hurricane, but he’s burst on the scene like one lately over the last few months. He was a winner on the Korn Ferry Tour at the MGM Resorts Championship in April, then used that win to qualify for the Zurich Classic, where he finished in 3rd with his partner Richy Werenski, just one stroke short of making it into the playoff.

Uihlein is a bomber (30th Driving Distance) with an excellent short game for what Congaree requires (4th 3-Putt Avoidance on Firm & Fast greens, 40th Sand Saves). I also like the narrative that Uihlein went to Oklahoma State, where the team practiced full time on a Tom Fazio designed track in Karsten Creek.

Peter Uihlein is a volatile player with a wide range of outcomes, but this field isn’t offering a long list of players who have won a tournament in 2021, so at least he is one of them, even if it was on the Korn Ferry Tour. At 125/1, he’s worth a bite at a course that plays into his strengths well.

Patrick Rodgers (+17500)

I’m starting to become a big Patrick Rodgers guy. The “Bombers who can putt” archetype just comes up so frequently on Tour, and every time there’s a chance to get away with average Approach play and still compete to win, I’m going to look Rodgers’ way. The last time I was high on Patrick Rodgers was at the second longest Par 71 played on Firm & Fast Bermuda greens at Quail Hollow, and he was the 36 hole leader there before crumbling into the abyss over the weekend. This week, Rodgers returns to the longest Par 71 played on Firm & Fast Bermuda greens in Congaree Golf Club.

Rodgers is #11 in Driving Distance, #2 SG: P on Firm & Fast greens, #7 in 3-Putt Avoidance, and #13 SG: P on Bermuda. He’s never won on Tour before, but his two best career finishes (each Runner Ups) have come at two of the top comp courses I’m looking at this week in the Wells Fargo and RSM Classic.

Rodgers just dominated the US Open qualifier on Monday at the Bear’s Club in Jupiter, Florida, lapping the field to win by 3 strokes in the 36 hole contest. So, this can go one of two ways now. He can either ride that positive momentum and continue to carry that hot form into this week on a course that should suit him perfectly, or pump the breaks and take it easy before next week’s Major championship. I’m betting on the former, but at 175/1, I won’t be too bummed if it turns out to be the latter.