Last week’s Prop, Lock, & Drop It article for the Memorial nailed the Safest Prop for the second straight week with a Patrick Reed T20 -115 cash. That is where the success began and ended, so there’s plenty room to improve as we look ahead to the Palmetto Championship. Despite the persistent research and articles, I still do not care about this event, so I’ve whittled this down to a modest top 4 props for this week. Let’s get to em!
Best Matchup Value (At + Odds)
Tyrrell Hatton (+110) > Dustin Johnson (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tyrrell Hatton popped up as #1 in my model this week, and right there behind him was Dustin Johnson at #2. Statistically, I’m not giving a substantial advantage to Hatton over Johnson, in fact they profile as almost mirror images of each other in the most important stats I’m looking at this week. They’re each Top 5 T2G & Opportunities Gained, Top 10 SG: APP & Prox 200+, and Above Average in all key Putting metrics and Driving Distance. So if all the stats say it’s a push, the plus odds appear to be value for Hatton.
Sure, Dustin Johnson is the World #1 and favorite to win this event, so we can’t go purely off of the stats. But DJ has not played like a player worthy of the World #1 honor or prohibitive favorite odds over the last 3 months. In his last 6 starts, he has just one finish in the Top 40. Hatton on the other hand has 5 T40 finishes in the same span, so in terms of recent form, we have to give the nod to Hatton.
Johnson cares enough about playing this hometown event to skip the Memorial for it, but a win at The Palmetto Championship does absolutely nothing for his legacy, so I still question how much he cares to compete for 4 days here, compared to Hatton who is still looking to catch his stride leading into next week’s US Open.
Best T20 Value
Chase Seiffert +600 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
I was singing Chase Seiffert’s praises in Bombs & Values earlier this week as a great DFS value, but after seeing this number on FanDuel, I’m ready to double down on the betting card as well with a little T20 action. Seiffert ranks 15th SG: TOT in this field over the last 36 rounds, so based on that alone, we would have to expect him to finish in the Top 20. He has 3 T20 finishes in his last 7 starts, and when he hasn’t landed inside the Top 20, it’s been the fault of his driver, so coming to a course that equalizes the field off the tee should do him wonders.
Safest Prop (-120 or Better)
Patton Kizzire Top 40 (-105) (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Keeping the spotlight on my Spotlight player of the week, how could you not love Kizzire finishing in the Top 40 of this garbage field at essentially even odds? Kizzire is a Sea Island guy, very familiar with the area and terrain with the perfect game for this course. He sprays the ball off the tee, but the last time we saw him play on wide open, unmissable fairways, he finished T3 at the Byron Nelson on TPC Craig Ranch. On this second shot course, Kizzire ranks 2nd in the field SG: APP over the last 36 rounds, and once he’s on the greens, he’s a stellar 11th in Bermuda Putting and 15th in 3-Putt Avoidance. Knowing the driver can’t get him into trouble here, and the absence of adversity he’ll face from the rest of his opponents in this field, this feels about as safe as they come at -105.
Best Random Prop
Hole In One – Round 3 (Yes) +700 (Bet MGM)
I do expect there to be a hole in one this week. The greens are big, firm, and fast, which in my mind is more conducive to rolling in some aces than tight, soft greens would be. And looking at the scorecard, these four Par 3s are not tremendously long at 170, 195, 205, and 230, so players should be teeing up with short/mid-irons all week. The odds are not as great for an Ace in R1 or R2 (+400) due to there being more opportunities from a full field, but I just have a hunch that on moving day, they’re going to make these pins a little more accessible, so I’m just gonna roll with that hunch.