Out with the old, in with the new! After a solid run from Faves & Fades, this marks a new chapter for thepgatout.com going forward, and something I’ve always enjoyed diving into week to week, even if I don’t always pull the trigger. I’m talking about PROPS. There’s always an opportunity to gain an edge in the prop market. It’s just so fragmented, it’s hard for sharp money to make any significant line movement to diminish value. And look, they just make the experience of watching a golf tournament, especially a Major Championship, a little more fun. Below are my favorite props available across my go-to Sportsbooks. Let’s begin!
Best Matchup Value
Adam Scott (+116) > Sergio Garcia (FanDuel Sportsbook)
You’d have to go back 14 events and over a year ago to find the last time Adam Scott missed a cut. Sergio Garcia on the other hand, rides in on the heels of three consecutive missed cuts at the Byron Nelson, Wells Fargo, and RBC Heritage. So in terms of recent form, we give the edge to Scott.
Looking at Major history, each are tied in career wins 1 apiece, each coming at The Masters. But since Sergio’s Masters win in 2017, the ensuing results in Majors have been disgusting. 9 MCs and no finishes in the Top 40. Adam Scott on the other hand, has 5 T20s and just 2 MCs at Majors over the same span since 2017, so advantage goes to Scott in recent Major history.
Neither of the two excel on the greens, and both rely on the same profile of Distance and Ball Striking, so I’m willing to give a push in terms of course fit. But at plus-odds, all signs seem to be pointing Scott in this matchup.
Best T20 Value
Francesco Molinari +850 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Some responsible bettors out there turn to the T20 market for some modest, conservative returns. But I’m not known to be a responsible gambler, so instead I scroll to the very bottom of the T20 board to see what calls my name. And here at +850 we find 2018 Open Champion, Francesco Molinari. The recent form is not very good with 3 MCs in his last 4 starts, but before that, he kicked off 2021 with three T10s in his first 4 starts. One of those T10s came at the Torey Pines, a nice long, difficult, coastal, windy comp course to Kiawah Island. Over the last 4 years, Molinari has 6 T20 finishes in Majors, so from an event history standpoint, 8.5/1 odds is exceptional value.
Safest Prop (+100 or Better)
Dustin Johnson T20 +100 (Bet MGM)
The public may have lost trust in DJ and his “knee injury” if his odds have dwindled worse than Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele in the Top 20 market, but I haven’t wavered my support of the world #1, South Carolina native.
Two months ago, sportsbooks were offering DJ +100 T20s as No Brainer Odds Boost promos (I presume). And the justification now is that he’s suddenly forgotten how to play the game of golf over the last few weeks? The World #1? DJ has a long history of showing up at long, difficult, windy courses. Frankly he has a long history of showing up at any course you put in front of him because he’s the best golfer on the planet. He’s got distance, ball striking, and the ability to get hot with the putter, even on Paspalum where he most recently won the Saudi International in February, his last victory. If you’re looking for a golf bet this week to double up your money, I’d look no further than right here.
Best Longshot Prop
Winning Score: +1 or Higher +4000 (theScore Bet)
This is just a fun bet to place because if your card blows up early, you can root for absolute carnage, and who doesn’t love golf course carnage?! If you placed this bet at the 2018 US Open at Shinnecock Hills, congratulations, you would have cashed, as Brooks Koepke went on to win at +1. This also would have given a pretty good sweat at the 2020 US Open, where Bryson DeChambeau was the only player in the field to finish under par.
If I had to guess, I’d say -5 is a more realistic target for the winning score. But all it takes is one day of severe winds to completely wipe the field back over par. This course has been widely talked about as the toughest challenge these Tour professionals have seen in years, maybe ever, and if the conditions are anything less than perfect, I have to imagine we’ll see scores similar to or worse than what we saw at Shinnecock and Winged Foot.
Best Random Prop
Top Lefty: Robert MacIntyre +400 (DK Sportsbook)
There are 5 lefties in the field this week: Brian Harman (+188), Bubba Watson (+225), Garrick Higgo (+400), Robert MacIntyre (+400), and Phil Mickelson (+850). My first thought when I saw there even was a Top Lefty prop was that Bobby Mac must be the favorite, so to see him at +400 feels like a steal. Don’t get me wrong, I love Brian Harman on a Pete Dye track, but assuming wind picks up, there’s a legitimate chance he has to pull out driver on some of the Par 3s. I would put Harman on a short list of players this week who do not meet the minimum distance required to stay in contention at Kiawah Island.
Going down the list, this feels like an awful course fit for Bubba Watson, who’s likely to find himself in many of the dunes and lateral hazards outside of the fairway this week. And then we have Garrick Higgo, who despite his recent tear on the Euro Tour, is unproven against a top field and grinder course like this. We’re then left with Phil Mickelson…and yeah, pass.
MacIntyre has the distance to hang around here, he looked spectacular in his Augusta debut two starts ago with a T11 at The Masters, and he even looked great at the WGC Match Play, going toe to toe with Dustin Johnson to advance out of group play in another Pete Dye track, Austin CC.