Bombs & Values TOUR Championship

2021 TOUR Championship Bombs & Values: The 3 Best Value Plays For Your DFS Lineups and Betting Cards

Is there such a thing as a bomb in 30 man field? No, not really, not a viable one anyway. So instead at the 2021 TOUR Championship, I’ll be using “Bomb” as relative term, meaning that they enter this week outside the Top 10 in the FedEx Cup Standings. As I said in the Tournament Preview article, this is not a tournament to be over-analyzed. There are only so many viable players you can choose from who have a chance to win this event, so DFS decisions will ultimately come down to identifying the right leverage players to play or fade. In terms of outrights, I’m completely ignoring the pure adjusted scoring odds board, as I legitimately believe Jon Rahm will win this tournament and nobody outside of him, Patrick Cantlay, Bryson DeChambeau, or Tony Finau have a chance to finish in first in this format. Because of that, I’m only looking at “No Score Bonus” odds for players who will shoot the lowest net score over these four days. They won’t get a trophy for that, but the outrights will cash for us just the same, despite how anticlimactic that will feel.

With the value plays below, I’m looking for high upside, high leverage players who can excel in non-birdie fest conditions and may go overlooked in all the madness of figuring out how to handicap for an adjusted scoring format. This week, I was ambitious enough to write up 10% of the entire field, so let’s get straight to it!

DFS Values & Betting Bombs

2020 C.J. Cup at Shadow Creek PGA OAD Picks - Fantasy Sports Degens

Pricing from Draft Kings

Louis Oosthuizen (+2500, $7,600)

Louis Oosthuizen is my favorite DFS play this week, and there’s a very good chance I go on to bet him outright (No Scoring Bonus) as well. +2500 odds may not constitute a “bomb”, but at $7,600 on Draft Kings, there are 16 other players priced ahead of him, positioning him in the bottom half of this field in terms of salary. Normally when you see a player enter a tournament #2 SG: TOT L24 and he’s priced in the bottom half of the field, he’s poised to be the highest owned chalk player of the week. But with Louis, early ownership projections have him forecasted as the 16th highest owned play this week. And it’s not like he comes into this week at a significant stroke disadvantage either; with the -3 head start, there are only 10 players who will tee it up on Thursday ahead of him to start.

My guess as to why Oosty is going overlooked here is a continued over-reaction to his interviews before the BMW Championship where he cited a nagging neck injury, which kept him out of the Wyndham Championship and NORTHERN TRUST the two weeks prior. But that’s the thing with Louis…he’s always hurt! When he finished runner up at The Open, US Open, and PGA the last couple months, his neck was probably hurting then too. The man travels tournament to tournament with his own special mattress, he’s bound to have some neck and back injuries flare up from time to time. The point is, I’m not going to overreact to comments in a week old interview, or performance at a bomber’s birdie fest that never suited his game to begin with. What I will overreact to, however, is that Louis sneakily shot the low round of the day on Saturday at Caves Valley (-8, 64) which tells me his form is just fine, and his ceiling continues to be as high as we’ve seen in all the Majors this season.

Looking ahead to East Lake, this should be a perfect fit for Louis’ world class all around game. In this loaded field, he ranks #1 Par 4 Scoring, #2 Bogey Avoidance, #3 SG: APP, #5 SG: P – Bermuda, #6 Good Drives Gained, #7 Opportunities Gained, and #9 Comp Course History. Wrap that altogether, and he’s the #1 player in my model this week. At discounted ownership and a discounted price, Louis is a no-brainer play to me.

Hideki Matsuyama (+3300, $6,400)

Hideki Matsuyama has been to East Lake 7 times, and in all 7 appearances, he has failed to gain strokes OTT over the course of the tournament. That, along with the fact that he’s only gained strokes putting here twice, is a concern. However the glass half full for Hideki is that he’s gained strokes T2G 6 our of 7 appearances, and has finished in the top half of the field (T15 or better) in 5 of his last 6 trips to Atlanta. So while there’s a clear path for this to go south, there’s just as clear a path to a high finish ceiling for the 2021 Masters champion who just lost in a playoff in the last limited, strong field, Bermuda non-birdie fest we saw him in at the WGC St Jude.

That’s the thing with Hideki, I’m never going to get excited to play him in a birdie fest, because I’m never going to be convinced that he can make enough putts to hang around. At East Lake however, Hideki has the game to fire a score in the mid-teens even if he loses strokes putting to the field, which makes him a really appealing Non-Bonus Scoring outright play at 33/1. Despite the $6,400 price tag on Draft Kings, Hideki rates out 9th in my model this week, falling inside the Top 10 in this field in terms of SG: APP, Good Drives Gained, Opportunities Gained, and Comp Course History. There’s risk that Hideki can come out here and lose 5+ strokes on the greens, but the ball striking upside at this value price makes Hideki an appealing outright and DFS GPP option.

Kevin Na (+5000, $6,000)

Though not necessarily a guy I’m jumping to bet outright in either market this week, Na seems to be in an excellent value position for DFS purposes. Ranking 19th in the FedEx Cup Standings, Kevin Na will tee it up on Thursday with a -2 head start, ahead of players like Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama, and Corey Conners. Na is undoubtedly on a lesser tier than those players, but he’s also proven over the course of his career that he can pop off in even the most loaded of fields with his short game alone. What’s most appealing about Na to me however is the projected ownership, as his current projections list him as the 3rd lowest owned player in this field. Lineup construction this week is going to be all about finding avenues to differentiate from common duplicated builds, and pivoting away from Daniel Berger at $5,800 who projects to be the highest owned player on the slate despite starting at Even par, to Kevin Na with a 2 stroke advantage and over half the ownership, is great way to find leverage.

Game theory ownership leverage aside, Na has very quietly entered this event in his best form of the year with 5 consecutive T25 finishes coming in to East Lake, including Top 10 finishes at the John Deere Classic, Wyndham Championship, and NORTHERN TRUST within that span. Sure, he’s ridden a hot putter lately having gained 3+ strokes on the greens in 4 of his last 6 starts, but he’s Kevin Na, and that’s kind of just what he does, so although it seems unsustainable, it’s worth the gamble he can find inspiration from Patrick Cantlay’s heroics on the greens last week if only for one last time to close out the 2021 season. Beyond the short game prowess, Na also enters this week ranking inside the Top 10 in Par 4 Scoring and Fairways Gained, encouraging indicators that he can outperform his price and land himself in the top half of this leaderboard come Sunday.