Prop, Lock. & Drop It US Open

2021 US Open – Prop Lock & Drop It: Breaking Down This Week’s 5 Best Prop Bets

There’s no better time to shop around for props than #MajorSZN ahead of this week’s US Open. I’m always looking to find some value in the prop market any given week, but we are all kids in a candy shop when it comes to finding the best props across sportsbooks this week, as Sportsbooks are giving out special prop promos left and right for this Major. In this article, we’ve got a mix of fun props and props that should keep the wallet from going empty. Let’s go!

Best Matchup Value (At + Odds)

Brooks Koepka (+110) > Bryson DeChambeau (DK Sportsbook)

Inside the mystery of the Bryson DeChambeau-Brooks Koepka video

There are no shortage of props out there across the sportsbook marketplace between these two US Open titans, and I’m sure DK Sportsbook is not the only place encouraging bettors to choose a side. So while the best plus-odds matchup is usually reserved for an underdog, I’d be remiss not to weigh in on this heavyweight clash without the juice. I’m #TeamBrooks when it comes to the beef, and when it comes to this head to head matchup.

In many ways, Brooks and Bryson’s games are exact copies of each other, which justify the even odds, special promotion aside. Both excel OTT, specifically with their Driving Distance, and that carries through in their US Open history, as 3 of the last 4 US Opens have been won between these two. When choosing a side between Brooks & Bryson this week, you’ll need to decide whether you’re going to favor Approach or Short Game. Brooks has been on fire with the irons lately ranking 18th SG: APP over the last 36 rounds, and that’s where I’ve grown to lean over the course of this week. Small greens reward precise iron players, and Brooks has always leaned on his irons when it comes to difficult Major championships. We know the US Open history is impeccable with 2 wins and no finishes outside the Top 20 in his last 6 appearance, and Torrey Pines sets up to play like a quintessential US Open track once again, so there’s really no reason to expect that trend to stop now, especially after how strong he looked at the PGA Championship for his runner up finish to Phil 2 starts ago. Form aside, Bryson’s course and event history beg a few more questions. He’s missed the cut in both of his Torrey Pines appearances, and besides the win at Winged Foot, he has just one other T20 finish at the US Open to his name over 6 career appearances. I’m giving the mental and competitive edge to Brooks in their larger feud, and in a week where I’m leaning heavily on Event History and Approach, I feel safe siding with Brooks here.

Best T20 Value

Charley Hoffman +300 (William Hill)

Charley Hoffman makes the first hole-in-one of the 2018 Masters

I’m not sure what else I can say about Charley Hoffman that I haven’t already written up in articles earlier this week or the many Tweets I’ve praised him in. Rather than regurgitate all the good stuff, I’ll just throw it all in a nice clean list here to recap my Hoffman love fest:

  • #3 in my Model
  • #5 SG: TOT, #2 SG: APP, #11 Driving Distance (All L36)
  • Poa specialist
  • 8 T20 finishes in his last 11 starts
  • T9 finish his last (healthy) appearance at Torrey Pines
  • Finished T20 in his last two US Opens
  • San Diego Native (#HomeBedNarrative)

There’s nothing you could say to me that could get me off of Charley Hoffman this week as an outright and DFS play, but he feels especially safe as a T20 play with all of that working in his favor.

Safest Prop (-120 or Better)

Kaymer Top German & Perez Top Frenchman (+100) (BetMGM)

Kaymer, Leading All the Way, Wins by 8 for His First U.S. Open Title - The  New York Times

This is a random promo prop being offered by BetMGM, but I love it. There are a total of 2 Germans and 2 Frenchmen in this field. On the German side, we have 2014 US Open champion Martin Kaymer, who ranks 104th in the OWGR and has 2 T20s in his last 4 starts on the Euro Tour. The other German is an amateur qualifier by the name of Matthias Schmid. Schmid ranks 1,897th in the world and has not made the cut in a professional event since 2017. Good luck!

On the French side, we have Victor Perez, ranking 35th in the world rankings thanks to his 3 T10 finishes in his last 10 starts, most notably a T8 at THE PLAYERS. His French opponent is Paul Barjon, who ranks 216th in the world and has made a living being mediocre on the Korn Ferry Tour with just 2 T20 finishes on the KFT in his last 16 starts (one of those was a KFT victory, but still). Kaymer and Perez can cash this bet if they bring their C-/D+ games to Torrey Pines, so I’m feeling pretty safe about this one.

Best Random Prop (#1)

Top Georgia Player: Patrick Reed (+188) (DK Sportsbook)

Patrick Reed with NCAA Championship trophy | National Club Golfer

How many different ways can Patrick Reed win me money this week? I’ve got him outright, he’s going to be in all of my DK lineups, and now he randomly pops up as the best random prop value on the board too? I didn’t even know he went to Georgia! Let TorReed Pines week continue then.

The other Georgia Bulldogs in the field are Harris English, Brian Harman, Bubba Watson, Brendon Todd, Russell Henley, and Kevin Kisner. Torrey Pines, especially in US Open conditions, is a course where you can cross off the shortest hitters in the field from contending right from the jump. Henley, Kisner, Harman, and Todd all fall outside the Top 100 in Driving Distance in this field, so I can’t see them giving any sort of charge at Patrick Reed this week. Harris English is at least temporarily on my blacklist after evaporating mid-round on Sunday at the Palmetto Championship once he grasped a hold of the lead, so if he couldn’t handle that pressure versus the worst Strength of Field of the season, I don’t think he’ll impose his will on Torrey Pines this week. So ultimately this comes down to a 1v1 matchup of Reed vs Bubba. Although Bubba’s always been amongst the longest hitters on Tour, he has some of the worst Event History in this field with 7 MCs and no finishes inside the Top 30 in his last 10 career US Open appearances. Pair that with the 9 strokes he’s lost on Approach over his last two starts coming into this week, and I no longer have any reason to feel concerned about Reed’s adversaries in this grouping.

Best Random Prop (#2)

Winning Score: -5 (+1200) (theScore Bet)

10 years ago: Tiger Woods wins 14th major with U.S. Open victory

I don’t really have any data to back up this bet, I just really like this prop and want to roll the dice on it. As much confidence as I have in my outrights, there is still a good chance Sunday will come and I don’t have the eventual winner walking up 18 to close it out. In that instance, I’d love to sweat that guy needing a Birdie/Par/Bogey on 18 to get to my magic -5 number. So why -5? According to theScore, -8 is the odds on favorite winning score at +800. Remove Patrick Reed from the Farmers Insurance Open earlier this year, and the rest of the top of the leader board was cluttered at -9. The course will obviously play more difficult for the US Open with all the enhancements the USGA has made, and the most notable is the conversion of the 6th hole from a Par 5 to a Par 4. So if we revert this course from a Par 72 to a Par 71 for four rounds, we can remove 4 strokes from the top of the leaderboard, and there we have it, a -5 watermark for the 2021 US Open. Let’s see how that plays out!