Prop, Lock. & Drop It WGC-FedEx St Jude Invitational

2021 WGC-FedEx St Jude Invitational – Prop Lock & Drop It: Breaking Down This Week’s 3 Best Prop Bets

The last Prop Lock & Drop It article went a perfect 3/3 at the 3M Open. That doesn’t always happen, but the books put up some really stupid lines at the 3M, and we took advantage of them. In a tight 66 man field, it will be harder to exploit the same value this week, but there are still plenty of viable options out there. Let’s get straight to it!

Best Matchup Value (At + Odds)

Tyrrell Hatton (+130) > Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK Sportsbook)

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There’s value on Tyrrell Hatton anywhere you look this week. His outright number is too low at 55/1 behind Brian Harman, his DFS price is too low at $7,400 behind Jason Kokrak, and he’s valued on the wrong side of this matchup versus Matthew Fitzpatrick at +130.

Objectively, Tyrrell Hatton is a much better golfer than Matthew Fitzpatrick is. Hatton ranks #13 OWGR compared to Fitzpatrick at #22. He’s got 4 wins over the last 2 years compared to Fitzpatrick who has just one win in his entire career. Hatton also enters this event ranking 9th T2G L24, while Fitz ranks 29th over the same span.

Fitzpatrick’s odds will be inflated this week because he’s finished inside the Top 10 in his only two trips to the WGC FedEx St Jude, but he was only able to achieve that by gaining 4+ strokes putting each time. In a matchup format, I’m happy to take a chance that Tyrrell Hatton’s ball striking carries him to an easy victory.

Best T10 Value

Billy Horschel +500 (Points Bet)

My Shot: Billy Horschel | Golf Digest

I don’t like Billy Horschel personally, I think he’s as cringeworthy as they come on Tour with whatever brand it is that he’s attempting to build for himself. Take the above picture for example. WTF is he doing? What is he thinking?? Whose idea was this photoshoot?!

Anyway, one thing I do know about Billy Horschel is never to fade him in the greater Florida area on Bermuda greens, so if we’re going to have to struggle through watching Horschel find more success, we should at least profit off of it.

Horschel is a T10 machine at WGCs (4 T10s in his last 6 WGC starts) and he’s a T10 machine at TPC Southwind (5 T10s in 8 career St Jude trips). You can read more flattering stats about Horschel in my Bombs & Values article here, but know that 5/1 odds to T10 in a 66-man field for a standing 2021 WGC Champion is just too good to pass up.

Safest Prop (-120 or Better)

Max Homa T40 (-110) (FD Sportsbook)

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I’m shocked books are even offering T40 odds this week but here we are on FanDuel Sportsbook staring down Max Homa, who can finish in the bottom half of the field this week and still cash out at -110. It’s a no cut event, which means no matter how poorly you play the first 3 rounds, you’re still probably going to be viable to land inside the Top 40 come Sunday if you’re any good.

With Homa, we’re of course talking about a 2021 Tour winner at the Genesis Invitational, who’s also won on Champion Bermuda greens at Quail Hollow at the 2019 Wells Fargo. Homa is a true boom or bust player with 5 T10s to go along with 6 MCs in 2021, but considering we have no cut to worry about, I like Homa’s upside to remain in the upper half of the leaderboard for 4 days. Over the last 24 rounds, Homa ranks 11th in Par 4 450-500 Scoring, which is a crucial range at TPC Southwind, and he’s 16th in Bogey Avoidance, which should help go a long way in keeping him outside of the Bottom 26. Homa has typically gone as far as his Around The Green game has allowed him to, but given that TPC Southwind surrenders a higher than average Scrambling rate, I’m optimistic Homa will avoid trouble and stay inside the Top 40 this week.