Final Bets WGC-Workday Championship

My Final Thoughts: The 2021 WGC-Workday Championship Final Betting Card, OAD, And DFS Plays

Despite a hapless and sweat-less outright card, we were still able to breakeven in both DFS and Bets at The Genesis Invitational last week thanks to some stellar efforts from the DFS values and a live Tony Finau Top 5 cash at +950. This week, I avoided the mid-teen range on outrights, which allowed me to spread the same units across more guys in the mid-long range.

While there is some mystery in what we can expect in our first professional golf tournament held at The Concession Golf Club, all of my plays this week boil down to the simple philosophy that in order to win here, you’ll need Distance, Great Ball Striking, capable Bermuda Putting, and success on other Florida Tracks and/or No-Cut events. So with that said, here’s a dive into all my action for this week’s WGC Workday Championship.

Outrights & Placing Bets

  • Bernd Wiesberger (Top 20): +400
  • Marc Leishman (Top 10): +750
  • Daniel Berger +3000
  • Joaquin Niemann +4200
  • Sungjae Im +4500
  • Collin Morikawa +4650
  • Will Zalatoris +7000
  • Bubba Watson +11000
  • Gary Woodland +20000

Two Bergers on one card? How could I resist! I’m back in my comfort zone, pounding the 30-50 range with 4 guys in Berger, Niemann, Sungjae, and Morikawa who I think are all equally as likely to win in this field. Most of these plays were featured in Bombs & Values, while Sungjae, Niemann, and Morikawa were just too good of values to pass up, given their elite skillset and variance of pricing across the books this week. I’ve seen all three of these guys in the +3000 range on other books so I feel like I’m starting off the week with plus value already at these odds.

Props

  • Best 18-Hole Round: Sebastian Munoz (+12500)

I decided to jazz it up a little differently this week. Usually I like to bet FRLs to keep Thursdays interesting, but in a limited field and no risk of missing the cut this week, I decided to try a new prop. The great thing with Munoz is he’s all but guaranteed to go low if you give him 4 tries, so if he’s not the First Round Leader, he’s got plenty of potential to be an Any Round Leader. I like this prop because you’re never truly out of it through Sunday.

Matchups

  • Collin Morikawa -117 > Cameron Smith
  • Marc Leishman +105 > Matthew Wolff
  • Webb Simpson +105 > Bryson Dechambeau

The only good thing to takeaway from last week’s matchups was that I strictly parlayed them, so an 0-3 result pays the same as 2-1 would have: $0. So after following a 3-0 week with an 0-3 week, we still stand at a respectable 12-9-1 record for the season. This week we look to right the ship and get back in the green.

In the first matchup, we have Collin Morikawa, the #1 Approach player in this field on a course which I project Approach play to be the #1 key stat category. I think 30/1 would’ve been fair value for Collin and here he’s matched up against 60/1 Cam Smith. Smith’s a great player, I wrote him up last week, and he is best when playing on Bermuda grass, similar to what he plays in his Australian homeland. I actually think Cam Smith’s game correlates very similarly to Patrick Reed’s in that they both have good, not great, Ball Striking and great short games. Since I’m devaluing short game this week, Smith is someone I want to target against here.

Speaking of Australians vs young promising prodigies, I’m going with Leishman over Wolff, in a fascinating matchup of two players who could not be trending in more opposite directions. Wolff was on fire in 2020 with back to back 2nd place finishes at the US Open and The Shriners. But he’s been in an absolute tailspin ever since, with no finishes better than T36 in his next 6 starts. Leishman on the other hand, had stretches in 2020 where you had to question if he should keep his tour card, but has since rebounded in 2021 with T25 finishes in 4 of his last 6 events. If we’re looking at 2021 in a vacuum, this ones a layup for Leishman, and we get him at plus odds no less.

Speaking of players going in opposite directions, how about Webb Simpson, 48th in Driving Distance versus Bryson DeChambeau, who ranks #1. I know I’ve harped on the importance of distance all week, but Bryson has no control of his driver right now and the hazards on this course are going to be unavoidable for him. While I’m not actively looking to get Webb in my lineups, I know better than to bet against him on Bermuda grass, given his track record.

One And Done

  • Dustin Johnson

Newsflash, Dustin Johnson is good at golf, and I think he has a very good chance to win this golf tournament. I think it’s important to consider the purse whenever you’re thinking about playing the #1 player in the world. In the case of the WGC-Workday Championship, only 5 other events this season will pay out more to the winner: The 4 Majors, and The PLAYERS. I anticipate most people are saving DJ for one of the Majors and his ownership will be close to 20% in each. Here, we have an opportunity to buy “low” on Dustin Johnson coming off of a T7 at The Genesis where he never really was in contention. The bottom line is if you play DJ and he doesn’t win, you probably wasted your pick. But I don’t have any viable reasons to fade the 5-time WGC winner, and we may get lucky with some discounted ownership.

DFS Core

  • Daniel Berger ($9,300)
  • Harris English ($7,500)
  • Eric van Rooyen ($6,200)

I’m very high on Daniel Berger to follow up his AT&T Pro-Am win with another strong showing back home in Florida, and think at $9,300 he presents as much upside as anyone priced above him. Harris English has been in the $9K range for months, so to see him dip to the $7K range just a month removed from his win on a similar long Bermuda course like Kapalua, I’m happy to take the salary savings with him. In this tight field, you’ll need at least one $6K value guy to afford more top names, and EVR looks to me like the most miss-priced. He finished T3 at this event last year and if he can just finish T25 this year, you’re lineup’s going to be sitting pretty.