Welcome back once again to Bombs & Values, Wyndham Championship edition! Last week’s article for the WGC would have done just fine in a standard cut event with all 5 WGC value players finishing in the T15-T25 range, but that wasn’t quite good enough to make a concerted push towards the top of any GPPs or outrights. This week hopes to be a different story as we turn the page to perhaps the most viable bomb event of the year, the Wyndham Championship. If Jim Herman is just one year away from taking this down, there’s hardly anyone in this field I’d rule out from having a chance in the $7K and $6K DFS range or 100/1+ on the odds board this time around.
Since I’m still on vacation and can only find the time to write when I’m either violently hungover in the morning or debaucherously drunk at night, I’ll be truncating the format to a handful of cheap players I really like this week interchangeably as salary saver DFS plays and longshot betting bombs/placement bet options. Here we go!
DFS Values & Betting Bombs
Pricing from Draft Kings
Joel Dahmen ($7,200, +10000)
I love Joel Dahmen this week and he will be a fixture on both my betting card and DFS core. Like eventual 2021 Wyndham Championship winner Kevin Kisner, Dahmen is also a self-aware player who knows his lack of distance means there is only a select few tournaments on the Tour schedule each year where he can make a concerted run at to win. Now with the monkey off his back from his first career win at Corales earlier this year, Dahmen should come into the 2021 Wyndham Championship feeling looser than ever.
Three of the most important stats I’m looking for this week as indicators of success on this course are Fairways Gained, Birdies or Better Gained, and SG: TOT on Easy Courses. Dahmen joins Brian Harman as the only two players in this 150 man field to rank Top 30 in all 3. He ranks 17th overall in my model this week, as a credit to also ranking inside the Top 30 in Short Course History, and P4: 400-450 Scoring.
Dating back to his win at Corales in March, Dahmen has gained strokes on approach in 8 of his last 10 starts, including a strong T7 showing last we saw him at the Barracuda Championship. If he can get the putter rolling, everything else is trending well for Dahmen T2G heading into this week.
Matt Kuchar ($6,800, +18000)
There’s likely nothing you can plug into a model this week that’s going to get you excited to play Matt Kuchar based on the stats alone. Actually, even if the stats were great, you probably still wouldn’t be excited to play Matt Kuchar even at this discount. He’s Matt fucking Kuchar. But for a few reasons, I just keep going back to him on my card and DFS lineups, even despite the fact he’s coming in off of 4 consecutive MCs and has never played in the Wyndham Championship before.
If you think about Matt Kuchar over the totality of his career, his game is the epitome of what you would look for in a player at Sedgefield CC. He plays the old man game of pounding fairways without any distance, is a great long term iron player, and is a great putter, especially on Bermuda which is his best surface. Kuchar’s career isn’t too dissimilar from Webb Simpson’s, both having won THE PLAYERS and RBC Heritage, shorter courses that put an emphasis on accuracy off the tee and hot putting on Bermuda greens. And while it may feel like Kuchar has fallen off lately, he’s still only 2 years removed from his last PGA Tour win at the Sony Open (another short Bermuda track).
It’s been a weird season for Kuch, he’s missed the cut in all 6 Majors he’s played in this year, and beyond the Majors, has played a much lighter schedule than we’re used to seeing from him. At this stage of his career (like Webb again), I believe Matt Kuchar is beginning to pick his spots and enter more of the short course events he knows he still has a chance to contend in, and that’s why he’s only just now entering the Wyndham Championship field for the first time. That, and the fact that he’s 124th in the FedEx Cup Playoffs and needs a decent showing to make the Northern Trust field. With three Top 20 outings over his last 10 events, I’m optimistic we see another solid performance from Kuchar on this course to propel him into the FedEx Cup Playoffs.
Brice Garnett ($6,800, +19000)
The big ticket delivered for us at the 3M Open finishing inside the Top 20, so I’m going right back to him on another track in Sedgefield CC that requires players to find the fairways off the tee in order to create birdie opportunities.
Garnett is a fairway-finding putting specialist, which is two thirds of the perfect combination we’re looking for at Sedgefield CC. His Approach game is hit or miss, but it’s trending in the right direction having gained strokes on approach in 4 of his last 6 outings, including 4 strokes gained over just two rounds at the John Deere Classic.
A key to finding success on a Donald Ross designed course is the ability to maneuver complex undulating greens, so in general this is not a place you expect a random “Team No Putt” player to find lightning in a bottle. In Garnett’s case, he’s been lethal on these greens, gaining 5+ strokes putting at the Wyndham Championship in 3 of the last 4 years, finishing T20 in each of those 3 years when the putter was cooperating. As the 6th ranked player in this field in Driving Accuracy coming in, Garnett is poised to once again create birdie opportunities en route to another T20 bid.
Chesson Hadley ($6,600, +31000)
This is a disgusting sentence to type, but what has Chesson Hadley done over the last couple months to suggest he can’t hang around in a crap field birdie fest? Despite being a disaster on the back 9 on Sunday at the Palmetto, he looked great for at least 63 holes on his way to a modest T2 finish. Since then he’s also made the cut at the Rocket Mortgage, John Deere Classic, and 3M Open, where he followed a similar script of starting hot and fizzling on the weekend.
With Hadley, you’re getting the #1 putter on Bermuda over the last 24 rounds, which is notable on a birdie fest putting contest like the Wyndham Championship. The rest of his game hasn’t been all bad recently either, having gained strokes on approach in 3 of his last 4 outings, including the 5.3 strokes he gained on approach last we saw him at the 3M Open.
Hadley probably still is not ready to win a golf tournament in 2021, but at this price, he presents an interesting case as a Top 40 bet, DFS salary saver, or FRL flyer.