Bombs & Values Butterfield Bermuda Championship

2022 Butterfield Bermuda Championship Bombs & Values: The 4 Best Value Plays For Your DFS Lineups and Betting Cards

I’m betting Mito Pereira to win this golf tournament at 25/1. That has absolutely nothing to do with the rest of this article, but I wanted to get it off my chest because he’s #1 in essentially every SG category that matters besides putting, and even with the putter, he has gained strokes more often than he has lost strokes over his last 24 rounds. So I feel great about it, and because I feel great about it, I’m feeling loose to fire away a bunch of bombs this week.

Form does not matter at the Bermuda Championship. The previous two winners entered this event having MC’d in their prior 4 events. It’s not super logical, but it does make some sense considering how different Port Royal is from your usual Fall Swing parkland birdie fest course set up. Here, distance is discounted and good shots can go unrewarded if they catch these constant, prevailing gusts, which opens the floodgates for the bottom of the board to contend. So when looking at bombs this week, I’m looking past recent form/recent results and focusing more on course history and/or short & windy comp course history to identify the best buy low players who can lean on their irons and putting to follow in Brendon Todd and Brian Gay’s footsteps. Here are my favorite value plays for the 2022 Butterfield Bermuda Championship.

DFS Values & Betting Bombs

Meet the rookies: Bo Hoag

Pricing from Draft Kings

Nick Taylor (+8000, $7,400)

There are no trends we can gather in terms of form leading in to the Bermuda Championship for its first two winners, Brendon Todd and Brian Gay. If there were, it’s that both players entered in a tailspin ball striking-wise, each losing strokes OTT + APP in the each of the 5 events prior; Todd had MC’d in 4 of his last 5 events and Gay had MC’d in 5 consecutive events coming in to the Bermuda Championship. So if that’s the trend, then Nick Taylor is this year’s version of Todd & Gay. Taylor has lost strokes ball striking in 5 of his last 6 events, however has just one MC and a T10 at the Wyndham Championship over that span. Like Todd and Gay, Taylor is a short game specialists who continues to show solid overall form with his short game to go along with sporadic approach play week to week.

People forget Nick Taylor is a multi-PGA Tour winner, and only one calendar year removed from his last win, which came at the 2020 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. I think Pebble Beach is the perfect comp course for Port Royal; They’re both 6.8K yards, they both sit on the coastline exposed to high winds, and they both typically play host to some of the weaker fields all season, with average winning scores in the high teens. In addition to the AT&T Pro-Am win, Taylor’s two best finishes in the 2021 season came at two other strong comps to Port Royal in the Wyndham Championship (T10) and Sony Open (T11). Taylor’s up and down recent results make him a volatile DFS play, but the win equity makes him a viable outright flyer at this price.

Bo Hoag (+10000, $7,000)

In order to win the Bermuda Championship, your last name cannot exceed 4 letters. That’s as much as we’ve learned from the first two years of this tournament, and while it still short lists Patrick Reed up top as a deserving favorite, the best 4-letter player in terms of recent form is Bo Hoag, who is 14th in this field SG: TOT L24.

In terms of a course profile fit, Port Royal should stack up perfectly for Hoag. Per the charts below (courtesy of Fantasy National), he’s a plus putter on Bermuda greens, gains strokes on Easy-to-Average scoring conditions, and is incredibly lethal in windy conditions. The numbers in high winds are staggering when you look into them, as he’s gaining 2.7 SG: TOT on average per round in these severe conditions. That’s 0.7 strokes higher than the next closest player (Camilo Villegas), and at least a full stroke higher than everybody else in this field.

Bo Hoag is 6th in my model this week; in addition to the top marks in high wind scoring, he’s 5th SG: APP and 7th SG: TOT on Comp Courses. Looking at the comps, Hoag’s best finishes in his early career have all come at courses that share similarities to Port Royal. In addition to his T11 finish here at the 2020 Bermuda Championship, Hoag also finished T9 at the 2020 Sony Open, and inside the Top 30 at the RSM Classic, Arnold Palmer Invitational, The AmEx, and Mayakoba (twice), all within the last three seasons. He’s coming off of back to back missed cuts on the number, but with a T16 and T11 in his two events prior, Hoag is close to rounding out his form on a track that should suit him perfectly this week.

Vaughn Taylor (+15000, $6,800)

I admittedly have a Vaughn Taylor problem. I like that he putts with the flagstick in all the time, and he’s usually been a reliable T40 value play on specific shorter courses that suit his game. Like the other Taylor, Vaughn also has a recent win at the AT&T Pro Am back in 2016, and that along with recent finishes of T2 at Mayakoba, T7 at The AmEx, T8 & T10 at the RSM Classic, and T12 at the Sony Open make him the #1 Comp Course History player in my model this week. If Brendon Todd and Brian Gay have taught us anything, it’s that course fit is far more important than recent form entering the Bermuda Championship, and generally speaking, it’s been more repeatable for short course specialists to find continued success on sub-7K courses that open the playing field for plotters.

In addition to the Comp Course history, Taylor also ranks out Top 15 this week in Fairways Gained, SG: TOT – High Winds, and SG: P – Bermuda, which makes him #3 overall in my model this week. After a modest T40 finish in his Bermuda Championship debut last year, I’m going to consider going right back to Vaughn Taylor in the T40 market and/or DFS as a high floor salary saver.

Scott Brown (+30000, $6,500)

Scott Brown, probably best known for being Kevin Kisner’s best buddy on Tour, is my favorite play this week. I have already bet him at 300/1, and he is the lowest priced player I am comfortable going to on Draft Kings at $6,500.

This is exactly the type of tournament Brown is capable of competing in. It’s Bermuda greens, which he’s intimately familiar with growing up in Georgia and ranking 24th in this field SG: P – Bermuda, it puts an emphasis on driving accuracy and approach play, where he ranks Top 30 in both categories, and aside from the wind, it’s best defense is the long Par 3s, where he ranks 8th in Par 3 Scoring: 200+. There are only 4 players in the field this week who rate out Top 30 in Bermuda Putting, SG: APP, and Fairways Gained, and Brown is the cheapest priced of all of them.

The results coming in are as uninspiring as Todd or Gay’s were, but on the bright side, he is only 5 starts removed from a T4 finish on another short fairway-green track in the John Deere Classic. If he can spark up the putter one more time in Bermuda, Brown fits the profile to make a run for a high placing finish this week.