We have the Hero World Challenge and QBE Shootout remaining in 2021, but for all intents and purposes, this is the last real tournament of the year where I’ll be digging around for DFS values and betting longshots. I have been writing this article every week since the 2021 Sentry Tournament of Champions, and it’s crazy to think a full year of tournaments has already gone by. As an homage to the Bombs & Values article, I am going ALL OUT on bombs this week with my outright card. I have landed on 12 pre-tournament outright bets, by far the most I’ve ever placed all year, and that’s only possible because I’m fading everyone sub-60/1 this week and will have at least 8 bets on players at 100/1+. It’s go big or go home, and since we’re already about to go home for the holidays, I have no choice but to also swing big.
It’s a very upside down week in terms of value, as we have un-bettable premiums on guys like Scottie Scheffler and Webb Simpson, and odds on some of the players listed below that I would have still found viable at half the number. I’m not ready to hand the trophy to Scottie or Webb, so that means we can consider even the longest of players in play this week without a dominant powerhouse in the field. I could have written up over 20 value players I like this week in DFS and betting markets, but the 4 below are my consensus favorites.
DFS Values & Betting Bombs
Pricing from Draft Kings
Hayden Buckley (+12000, $7,200)
Of all the KFT rookies this year (and there are a lot of them), Hayden Buckley has looked like the best non-Chilean one out there to start the 2022 season. He already has a T4 at the Sanderson Farms and T8 at The Shriners within his first 4 starts of the season, and impressively gained in all four SG categories in each of those events, displaying a solid, well-rounded game. He is one start at the Bermuda Championship removed from being sub-30/1 in the outright market, and even made it through the cut at that tournament in brutal weather conditions, yet still plummets this week all the way down to 120/1 following his T71 finish there.
The sample size is still small with Buckley, but through the start of the 2022 season, he ranks 9th in this field in GIRs gained and is 2nd in SG: P 15+ ft, which has historically proven to be a key indicator of success at this tournament. He’s also one of only 5 players in this week’s field to rank Top 50 in both Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy, which is an encouraging sign for his long term prospects on Tour.
Most importantly however, Buckley and I are both coming in hot with #EngagementPerspective, which is a narrative I can’t help but milk this week.
Denny McCarthy (+13000, $7,000)
There is a scenario where this event just comes down to a pure putting contest if the entire field is hitting a high percentage of fairways and just aiming at the middle of greens, and in that scenario, there are few others I’d trust more than Denny McCarthy who ranks 3rd in SG: P – Fast Bermuda, 7th in SG: P Bermuda, and 4th in SG: P at Sea Island. Frankly, it’s the end of a long year of refreshing shot tracker in the PGA Tour app, and I’d like the comfort of knowing I really don’t have to sweat an 8 foot leave like I’ve had to endure lately with guys like Mito, List, and Keegan.
The form right now is as hot as it’s ever been in the past year coming off back to back Top 15 finishes at the Houston Open and Mayakoba. As a shorter yet accurate driver off the tee, Denny has historically found his success on shorter courses, with additional Top 15 finishes also coming this year at the Honda Classic, RBC Heritage, and Wyndham Championship. In terms of course history, he showed he has the upside to compete here with a T8 finish in 2019. Now coupling the hot recent form with proven past results, we should expect Denny to make a run at his first career Tour win this week.
Cam Davis (+14000, $6,800)
Cam Davis is just 10 starts removed from an impressive victory at the Rocket Mortgage where he opened as a 160/1 longshot. Since then, he’s looked just fine, making 8 of his last 10 cuts, and yet he’s already dipped back to the same longshot range yet again, all the way down in the $6Ks on Draft Kings.
Apparently every Australian is just naturally good in the wind, but the stats back it up for Davis who averages a massive 1.25 strokes gained on the field in extreme winds, which should come in handy on the exposed Seaside course on St. Simon’s Island. What I’m most drawn to with Davis, however, is that he ranks #2 SG: TOT on Short Courses L24 rounds, meaning he’s been able to successfully navigate these positional courses even if not pulling driver on every hole. That ranking is driven by steady T30 finishes this year at the Shriners, Northern Trust, RBC Heritage, AT&T Pro-Am, The AmEx, and the Sony Open. As a prolific birdie maker, Davis’ raw talent is just too good to be priced this low down the board, and makes for a viable outright or GPP flyer.
Nick Watney (+30000, $6,200)
What an absurd price on Nick Watney who has chosen the 2022 season to be his renaissance year. Watney enters this week #1 in GIRs Gained L24, coming to a course that is known to restrict players from flag hunting and instead take a more conservative approach to avoid surrounding green-side hazards or swells of wind. Watney also just so happens to be #1 in SG: P 15+ ft L24, a perfect combination for this course. He formally announced his return on Tour with a T2 finish at the Sanderson Farms 5 starts ago, aided by a scorching hot putter which gained 11.7 strokes on similar fast Bermuda greens. Hot putting week aside however, Watney has quietly put together a stretch of 10 consecutive events in which he’s gained strokes on approach, making him 21st SG: APP L24. In addition to these promising recent form signs coming in, Watney also has a very solid track record on this course, with a T14 in 2019 and T23 in 2018. At this price discount, there’s plenty to feel good about at the RSM Classic with Nick Watney.