We are back for more bombs and more DFS values at the 2022 Shriners Children’s Open! Any birdie fest putting contest is a good time to load up on the bottom of the board, given they often come down to a putting contest. Martin Laird and Austin Cook who opened well beyond 100/1 on odds boards last year went into a 3-man playoff alongside Matthew Wolff at the 2021 Shriners Children’s Open, so it really is wide open for anyone who rides a little form with the ability to get hot on the greens. The below four players jump out to me as the best values with upside to pop this week, so let’s get straight to it!
DFS Values & Betting Bombs
Pricing from Draft Kings
Ian Poulter (+13000, $7,000)
It’s easy to forget that Ian Poulter exists outside of Match Play events considering he has just one career win on the PGA Tour coming back in 2018 and has really only been in contention to win one tournament since the COVID restart, which came at the 2021 Charles Schwab where he finished T3, 4 strokes back of Jason Kokrak. But be that as it may, Poulter has quietly piled up a respectably solid 2021 campaign, which was enough to earn him a captain’s pick at the Ryder Cup, where he went on to at least pick up one point in his final single’s match against Tony Finau. Perhaps there is a slimmer of motivation after the trouncing at Whistling Straits to give it another go at representing European golf properly this week, and if that is the case, there are few better course fits for the Englishman to prove himself on.
We’ve seen pure putting specialists like Denny McCarthy and Peter Malnati continue to find success at TPC Summerlin, which should not come as too much of a surprise considering it regularly plays as one of the easiest courses on tour, and rewards birdie makers who can hole the most putts. Over the last 50 rounds, you’ll find no better putter on Tour than Ian Poulter, who enters this week #1 SG: P and #2 SG: SG, as he currently rides a streak of 3+ strokes gained putting in 7 of his last 10 measured events. Poulter also carries a streak of 8 consecutive cuts made entering this week, highlighted by the T3 at the Charles Schwab and T10 at the WGC FedEx St Jude over that stretch. The Shriners debutant ranks above average in every key stat I’ve plugged into my model this week, good for 10th overall, and highlighted by ranks of 3rd BoB Gained, 8th P4: 400-450, and 23rd in Fairways Gained, in addition to the top short game marks.
Ryan Moore (+15000, $7,000)
We all know how I feel about a nice home bed narrative, and for 2012 Shriners Open champion Ryan Moore, TPC Summerlin is circled as a home game on the calendar of his Las Vegas home fridge every single year. Moore has three additional T15 finishes since the 2012 win at this event and just one MC in 8 starts over that span. He has a very simple, yet repeatable game of hitting the ball short and straight off the tee (5th in Fairways Gained), above average on Approach (59th SG: APP), and average with his Putting (76th SG: P). That’s been a formula for a bunch of MCs on long, difficult courses, but consistent T40s on Easy Courses, upon which Moore ranks 20th SG: TOT. He’s generally a safe floor play in DFS as a value guy to make it through the cut, however his recent T2 finish at another Short, Bent Grass, Easy Scoring Birdie Fest in the John Deere Classic shows he’s still got some left in the tank heading into arguably his favorite course on Tour, ranking #2 in the field behind only Webb Simpson in terms of Course History at TPC Summerlin.
Chesson Hadley (+20000, $6,500)
I’m never proud of myself for endorsing Chesson Hadley to do well in a golf tournament, especially not after one the biggest meltdowns we’ve seen on Tour since the Restart at the Palmetto Championship. However, the fact remains that Chesson Hadley is good at two things: Putting, and contending in low pressure, low stakes, flyover events.
Hadley is a streaky putter, showing some volatile spike weeks with 5 events in the 2021 season where he gained 5+ strokes putting. That resulted in Top 15 finishes at the Wyndham, Palmetto, Corales, and Bermuda. A murderer’s row of Tour Events! Where Hadley has always done the most damage in his career however, is TPC Summerlin where he ranks #3 in Course History with three Top 10s and a T18 over 7 career starts. In those events, Hadley has gained an impressive 4+ strokes on approach on 4 occasions, including in 3 of his last 4 appearances. Considering Hadley rides into this week in better form with the irons (53rd SG: APP) than any prior year he’s entered this tournament, he should be poised to make another run at a high finish if he can just pair up a solid Approach and Putting week together.
Mark Hubbard (+20000, $6,100)
Mark Hubbard on a Short, Bent Grass Putting Contest, $100 removed from the bare minimum price on Draft Kings coming off a T16 finish in his previous start at a similar course set up in the Fortinet Championship? Sign me up! I don’t think I’ve ever bet on Mark Hubbard or played him in DFS before, but that’s because he’s never really seemed like a value play until now. Hubbard joins Louis Oosthuizen, Patrick Reed, Kevin Na, and Pat Perez as the only 5 players in this week’s field to rank Top 50 in APP, ARG, Putting, and Fairways Gained. Those are all the foundational stats I care about this week, and a $6,100 player is checking off each and every box. I don’t expect Hubbard to win this week, but I also don’t see any reason to suspect he can’t follow with another T20 finish to kickstart his 2022 season, considering he enters with 3 T20s in his last 4 PGA Tour starts.