Yes, as a matter of fact I am betting Mito Pereira this week at 60/1. He is exactly the same profile player as defending champion, Viktor Hovland. They both hit is long and straight off the tee, are perfect with their irons, and tumultuous with the short game. If Viktor Hovland can overcome those short game short comings to win here, then the best ball striker on planet earth over the last 24 rounds, Mito Pereira, surely can as well.
It’s been ages since we’ve seen a deep and top heavy field on the PGA Tour; I’d almost forgotten it’s possible to play bombs who are actually established players with viable upside. That’s what happens when JT, Brooks, Vik, Reed, Scottie, and Abe all enter a field together. And so, we have a cornucopia of value players in the $7k and $6K range to choose from this week. It was hard to refine down to just four, but prioritizing Driving Accuracy, Opportunities Gained, and Comp Course History, these are the top players I’m looking to for salary relief this week at the 2022 World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba.
DFS Values & Betting Bombs
Pricing from Draft Kings
Kevin Streelman (+10000, $7,200)
I have seen Kevin Streelman as high as 100/1 on odds boards (where I’ve placed a bet on him), and as low as 50/1. The drift to shorter odds suggests to me that he is going to become more and more popular in DFS over the course of this week, but there is so much $7K chalk to spread around this week between Joel Dahmen, Adam Long, Pat Perez, Russell Knox, and Emiliano Grillo, I’m not even worried about it.
Streelman has made the cut in 7 consecutive events entering this week, highlighted by a T7 at the Wyndham Championship (in which he missed the playoff by 1 stroke) and a T19 at The Open. He hasn’t finished inside the Top 30 in any of his last 5 starts, which is probably why he’s dipped this low down the board, but Streelman has historically been a short course specialist. He rates out 24th SG: T2G on Short Courses and 22nd SG: TOT on Comp Courses.
If I could only look at 2 stats this week, they would be Fairways Gained & Opportunities Gained, and Streelman is one of only three players this week to rate out Top 10 in both. He’s 8th overall in my model this week, ranking above average in every key stat category I pulled for, and should make for a safe DFS cash play at this price.
Henrik Stenson (+10000, $7,100)
I have no FOMO from missing out on Lucas Herbert at the Bermuda Championship, but after seeing several winning tickets across Twitter last Sunday, I couldn’t completely dismiss it as a fluke. Lesson learned, don’t completely ignore what’s going on across the pond on the Euro Tour. Understanding Scandinavians have a pretty good track record at this event, my mind naturally wandered to a player who is best suited on short coastal tracks, closing out his 2021 season with finishes of T4, 3, T15, and T30: Henrik Stenson.
As far as I’m aware, Henrik Stenson doesn’t even carry a driver in his bag anymore. He’s gone the anti-Bryson route; to hell with distance, let me just play out of the fairway. That’s a pretty ill advised strategy for the modern game, and explains why he only has 3 T25 finishes on the PGA Tour since December 2019. Those 3 finishes, however, happen to have come on great comp events to Mayakoba: the RSM Classic (T23), Corales (T21), and the Hero World Challenge (1). At this stage of Stenson’s career, we should really only expect him to hang around at courses that neutralize distance, and there are few better opportunities for him to capitalize on that than at El Camaleon.
Guido Migliozzi (+16000, $6,900)
There’s a very long list of players who fit this course well and could potentially contend to win. It’s not going to be possible for me to get exposure to every single player I like, so instead I’m prioritizing the players who are most mispriced to optimize the opportunity cost in my lineups. At $6,900 in this Mayakoba field, just a week removed from his $8,300 price at the Bermuda Championship, Guido stood out to me as the most mispriced player in the $6K range.
We did not have Strokes Gained data to reference at the Bermuda Championship, however we were still able to track Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy, in which Guido rated out 20th and 3rd respectively over those last 4 rounds. He’s played a majority of his recent tournaments on the European Tour, which also does not give us the luxury of any SG data to model off of, but over the course of his early career, he has profiled as a plus-OTT player, which is the first box I’m looking for a player to check this week. We are also getting a nice discount on Migliozzi’s price this week thanks to a Sunday 77 at the Bermuda Championship in torrential downpour, which I won’t hold against him; he entered the final round T15 before finishing T57.
Guido is 30th in my model this week, rating out Top 40 in Comp Course history, SG: OTT, Opportunities Gained, SG: APP, Short Course History, and SG: P. Though the PGA Tour reps have been limited, he showed plenty of promise last season with a T4 at the US Open and T13 at The Travelers, so the GPP ceiling is very high compared to those priced around him in this range.
Tyler Duncan (+25000, $6,400)
As I continue to harp on the importance of weighted SG: OTT + Fairways Gained this week, my eyes naturally gravitate to none other than Tyler Duncan at the bottom of the board, who carries a streak of 10 consecutive events where he has gained strokes OTT. Even better for El Camaleon, he’s been gaining thanks to elite accuracy off the tee, where he ranks 13th in Fairways Gained. Duncan has made the cut at Mayakoba in each of his first 4 career trips, and after averaging positive strokes in all 4 major categories through the first two events of the 2022 season, Duncan seems poised to follow up his T14 at the Sanderson Farms with another T40 bid. At this price, that’s all we need to ask of him.