Bombs & Values Farmers Insurance Open

Bombs & Values: 5 Best Value Plays For Your DFS Lineups and Betting Cards at the 2021 Farmers Insurance Open

I have to admit, Bombs & Values is my favorite article to write each week. The beauty of golf betting is that no matter the tournament, there’s always somebody 70/1+ in contention come Sunday. Case in point: Si Woo Kim opened at 70/1 ahead of his win last week.

I’m slightly tempering the definition of “bombs” this week, as this is not the kind of tournament your average Tour player can get hot and win at; you need to have an all-around skill set to win at Torrey Pines. That said, these bombs are all very much in play to win, and since I expect a top-heavy leaderboard, it’s more important than ever to identify low-priced DFS plays for your Stars & Scrubs builds. Bombs away!

All prices below are from Draft Kings, DK Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook

DFS Values

Adam Scott ($8,300)

I didn’t think it was possible for Adam Scott to get any better looking. And then I saw him at this price. Adam Scott’s Short Game is nothing short of abysmal on Bermuda grass, which is the only grass we’ve seen him play on since The Masters two months ago. But when we look at his last 24 rounds on Bent or Poa grass, he’s 5th in the Field in SG: Short Game. We know his Approach game is sharp, we know he’s going to gain strokes OTT with Driving Distance on a course where hitting fairways is inconsequential, we know he’s handsome, and now we know not to even worry about the short game. There’s nothing not to love about him.

In his last trip to the Farmers, he finished in 2nd place. But this year, Adam Scott will not be anybody’s runner up. Don’t just take my word for it, take it from Adam Scott himself:

Talor Gooch ($7,600)

It took me exactly one week to forgive Talor Gooch after he failed to deliver the #GoochSweat we were promised at the Sony Open, missing the cut on the number. He looked strong at The American Express last week and finished T21, despite a quiet, Even-Par Sunday.

This week he returns to Torrey Pines, where he’s made the cut in each of his first three appearances, including a sharp T3 finish in 2019. As his game continues to improve year over year, and #TeamCallaway continues to roll out winners, momentum is on Gooch’s side.

He is one of only 5 players who ranks in the top 50% of the Field in each of my key stat categories for this week (SG: TOT, SG: APP, SG: ARG, Driving Distance, Scrambling, SG:P – Poa/Bent, 3-Putt Avoidance, Bogey Avoidance), and he’s the only one of those 5 players in the $7K range. In fact, he’s in the top half of all the secondary and tertiary stat categories too. The only stat I could find where he finishes worse than half the field is “SG: Putting – 25ft +”, probably because his approach game is so damn good, he’s never in that situation.

Gooch should be a nice DFS anchor at this price, given the strong all-around recent form and steady course history.

Matt Jones ($7,000)

I ran the numbers and every single Australian in the Field is good. I’ve already sung Adam Scott’s praises, Marc Leishman is back for his title defense, Jason Day’s won here twice in 4 years, Cameron Smith almost won The Masters and Cam Davis almost won last week at The American Express. They’re all really good. You can actually fit those 6 Australians in a DK lineup and have a damn good chance of winning a GPP that way #PlayAllTheAussies #LiveDownUndaPar.

So here’s what we like about the most efficient of the Australian pack, Matt Jones. He’s made the cut in 3 of his last 4 trips to the Farmers, including a T13 in 2019 and made the cut in 7 of his last 8 events, including three Top-15s in that span and a T21 at The AmEx last week. Jones is 29th in the Field in SG: Short Game, 40th in Driving Distance, and better than Field Average in all main SG categories in course conditions similar to Torrey Pines (Bent, Firm Greens, Narrow Fairways, Above Average Course Length, Par 72s).

You’re going to need salary relief this week, and Matt Jones is one of the hottest players you’re going to find in this range.

J.B. Holmes ($6,900)

It doesn’t matter what year we’re in, J.B. Holmes loves him some Torrey Pines. He’s played in just three events since the restart last June and none have been remarkable. But before COVID disrupted the 2020 season, J.B. was CLICKING. He finished 16th at The Farmers last January and followed that up with another 16th at the Waste Management and 14th at the ATT Pro-Am.

Holmes is a course horse here, with three Top-6 finishes since 2015. And when you look at his game profile, it makes sense. He hits the ball far (29th Driving Distance), yet inaccurately, and is very solid around the greens (37th SG: Short Game).

All of your $6K players are going to have flaws. The only flaw I see when I look at J.B. Holmes is the rust, and I’m willing to overlook that at a course he can play with his eyes closed.

Wyndham Clark ($6,800)

I like Wyndham Clark for many of the reasons I like Adam Scott, and we get him at a steep discount at $6,800. Clark is bomber (3rd Driving Distance) with a good short game (47th SG: Short Game). His approach numbers won’t wow you, but he’s better than Field average in GIRs, 28th in Scrambling, and 29th in Bogey Avoidance.

Just four events ago, he finished in second at the Bermuda Championship, and he’s made the cut in 6 of his last 8 events. At $6,800, Clark is trending up, and his Distance Off The Tee presents good upside for scoring opportunities if he can get through the weekend.

Betting Bombs

Gary Woodland (+7000)

2020 was a tough year for me. It had nothing to do with COVID and everything to do with Gary Woodland’s health preventing me from being able to bet on him to win a golf tournament. I placed 0 Gary Woodland outrights in 2020. Sickening.

Flashback to Gary Woodland’s victory at Pebble Beach in 2019 and a younger PGA Tout holding his +9000 outright ticket. It’s still my biggest lifetime hit, and in part the inspiration for why I enjoy following and betting on golf so much. I absolutely love Gary Woodland and wish him and his family nothing but good health and a nice, happy, prosperous life.

This is my first time betting on Gary Woodland since the 2019 US Open.

I really can’t contain my excitement, it’s good to be back. I’m not going to dive too deep into the numbers because I’m betting with my heart here but he’s missed 1 cut in 10 trips to the Farmers and has finished T20 or better in 5 of his last 7.

He’s healthy again and has a slew of positive vibes coming his way from New Jersey to San Diego. God speed, Gary.

Cameron Smith (+7000)

Aaaaaand we’re back to talking up Australians.

Cam Smith is best on non-Bermuda tracks, so while his mundane performances the last two weeks at the Sony and Sentry may have fooled some, they haven’t fooled me. I’m betting on the guy who finished 2nd at The Masters, 4th at the Zozo, and 11th at the CJ Cup in his final 3 rounds of the 2020 calendar year.

I mentioned 5 players who finish in the top half of the Field in all key categories – he’s also one of them. Like Gooch, you can’t find a SG category that Cam Smith is worse than the Field in, but Smith takes in up a notch. He’s 8th in SG:TOT last 24 rounds, 12th in Short Game, 4th in SG:P Bent or Poa, and 22nd in Scrambling. The Driving & Approach numbers and Course History are also solid. Plenty to like at this price for Cam Smith.

Louis Oosthuizen (+7000)

I absolutely love Louis Oosthuizen this week. I am playing him with full conviction on my betting card and in DFS at $8,000. He checks every box, and yes, also ranks in the top half of the Field in all the major categories. He’s 28th T2G, 6th SG: Short Game, 40th OTT, 60th Approach, 3rd Scrambling, and 6th Putting on Bent or Poa. The former Open champion has not won in awhile, but that hasn’t stopped pretty much any other 2021 winners from lifting a trophy this year.

Brandt Snedeker (+19000)

I’m going to skip all the recent form stats for Sneds. They’re the reason he’s +19000, and they don’t matter. What you need to know is Brandt Snedeker has played this event 11 times and in those 11 trips, these are his finishes: 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 9, 9,19, 45, 62, MC.

He thrives on Bent and Poa grass, and his elite short game will always give him a chance to contend here, regardless of how the recent ball striking has looked. He’s not a DFS core play, but when you’re thinking about outrights, don’t overthink this one. He has SEVEN Top-10s and 2 wins here! This is not a freak trend, he’s just really really good here. Bet him please.

Scott Stallings (+31000)

Scott Stallings is the opposite type of player to Brandt Snedeker, and yet they both have Farmers titles to their names. Where Stallings’ Short Game is weak, he makes up for it with a very strong Approach (30th) game. Stallings won this event in 2014 and then followed that up with a Runner Up showing in 2015. He hasn’t had spectacular results here since then, but at +31000, I’ll take a bite. Maybe he’s had it in him all along and just been…Stalling…until now to dial it up.