Farmers Insurance Open Final Bets

Money Where My Keyboard Is: My Final Betting Card For The 2021 Farmers Insurance Open

“We know a thing or two because we’ve seen a thing or two” – all of the veterans with strong history at The Farmers Insurance Open that I’m backing, probably.

I’m really high on players that combine Driving Distance, SG: Around The Green, and strong Course History this week, so you’ll notice that trend in the player pool I landed on below. Let’s dive in!

Outrights

  • Marc Leishman +4100
  • Adam Scott +4800
  • Bubba Watson +5000
  • Louis Oosthuizen +7000
  • Gary Woodland +7000
  • Cameron Smith +7000
  • Brandt Snedeker +19000

It doesn’t always happen this way, but I’ve already written pretty extensively about most of my Outrights (Scott, Oosty, Gary, Cam Smith, and Sneds) in Bombs & Values. Leish and Bubba fell just short of the Bombs range, but still undervalued to me at these prices.

I normally don’t tail defending champions, but Marc Leishman has finished Runner Up here twice before and looked to be back to vintage form at the Sony and Masters recently, so 41/1 is a juicy price if he really is past whatever the hell happened to him post-COVID restart. I’m a bit wary that Bubba hasn’t played in an event since The Masters 3 months ago, but I can’t pass him up at 50/1, given his course history and how well his Ball Striking was through the end of 2020.

Matchups

  • Adam Scott +110 > Jason Day
  • Hideki Matsuyama -125 > Victor Hovland
  • Marc Leishman -125 > Francesco Molinari

Through the first 3 events of the year, we’ve been in the green each time, bringing the overall record to 6-3-1. I’d love to see that sprout to 9-3-1 after this Sunday.

In the Australian Cage Match, I’m backing Adam Scott as my favorite Aussie in the field, and that’s saying a lot in this field. This is more than a pure value paly, because the + odds on Scott are justifiable, given Day’s historical dominance at Torrey Pines. Scott’s no slouch here either though, he just hasn’t played this event as often. It’s been over two months since Jason Day last played, so in a toss up, I’ll take Adam Scott and his recent reps in Hawaii at the plus odds.

I have not written up Hideki much this week, because I think his odds and DFS price are fair value, but I still really like him this week. He’s a terrible putter, yes. But by Hideki standards, his putting has been just fine at Torrey Pines. His finishing position has improved every time he’s come back to the Farmers, and in his last trip in 2019, he finished T3. Victor Hovland on the other hand, missed the cut in his only appearance here and does not have the strong short game I’m looking for to compete this week.

Both Leishman and Molinari carry volatile recent form into this event that include very low lows and moderately high highs. But if recent form is a toss-up, the defending champion Marc Leishman gets a huge edge in course history. Molinari could tap into his vintage Major-winning self this week, just as Marc Leishman could tap into his putrid 2020 self. I’m just not counting on either.

One & Done

  • Brooks Koepke

I think this is a great leverage spot for Brooks coming off of a MC at The AmEx last week, a tournament that neither fit his game, nor commanded his attention. Torrey Pines is a much better fit for his game and he is one of my favorites to contend this week, as written about here.

Brooks is an elite-tiered golfer, and most won’t jump to play him coming off of a MC when others at the top of the board like Rahm, Rory, Xander, Finau, English, Hideki, and Sungjae all come in hotter. But Brooks is a gamer, and knowing we’re coming back to these grounds for the US Open in June, I expect him to give it his all this week.

DFS Core

  • Adam Scott ($8,200)
  • Louis Oosthuizen ($8,000)
  • Talor Gooch ($7,600)

The DFS core was an adjunct disaster last week, torpedoed by Patrick Reed and Sam Burns, who also commanded chalk ownership. Not for nothing, it did feature Brendan Steele who made his way into the optimal lineup. I’m happy to turn the page.

I really did want this to be a Stars & Scrubs week, but after looking through everything, I really fell in love with the $8K range and don’t love the upside of many players in the $6-7K range, so ultimately I landed on a super balanced core.

Adam Scott is gaining some popularity, but I’m going to guess he goes 15-18% owned, which I’ll take for the player I think will win outright. Louis is going overlooked because of his lack of distance, but I love his game here. Gooch’s stats line up perfectly here, and he’s had consistent success, so I will roll out some lineups that don’t go cheaper than him.