3M Open Final Bets

My Final Thoughts: 2021 3M Open Final Betting Card, OAD, And DFS Plays

It’s the last Major hangover week of the year as we stumble our way into TPC Twin Cities for the 2021 3M Open. With all the unknowns surrounding the Olympics next week, it’s been easier than I thought to give this event my full attention, knowing next week is effectively a bye week for us golf degenerates. But in any case, here’s a look back at where I landed with my final bets, OAD, and DFS plays for the 3M Open.

Outrights (2.75u)

  • Matthew Wolff +3500
  • Sergio Garcia +3500
  • Bubba Watson +3500
  • Jhonattan Vegas +7000
  • Charl Schwartzel +7000
  • Troy Merritt +10000
  • Pat Perez +13000

With no Majors left for the rest of the season, I am back to my 3u outright cap for the rest of the way. I technically landed slightly under that mark of 2.75u with an asterisk that Bubba Watson was a late add with an opportune free bet credit.

Yes, my card looks like everyone else’s this week, in a volatile and unpredictable birdie fest where Michael Thompson came out of the woodwork to win just last year. I get it. But there’s no sense in forcing yourself to be contrarian on a betting card for no other reason, and when all the books are surrounding Bubba, Sergio, and Wolff with Tringale, Grillo, and Keegan, what choice do we really have? Unlike the other top-class names in this field (DJ, Oosty, Finau, Reed), Bubba and Wolff come into this week well rested after skipping The Open, so that along with the price discount are enough to get me onboard. TPC Twin Cities’ emphasis on Ball Striking – equal parts OTT and APP – set up perfectly for Sergio Garcia who will live or die with his putter this week as usual, but at the tail end of a Ryder Cup year, I expect him to be focused to edge out a player like Robert MacIntyre who sits with him on the Captain’s selection cusp.

All of the longer odds bets in Vegas, Schwartzel, Merritt, and Perez have each been featured earlier this week in Bombs & Values and fit the profile I’m looking for of players who can catch fire with their Irons, their Putter, or both.

First Round Leader

  • Patrick Rodgers +6000
  • Joel Dahmen +7500
  • Satoshi Kodaira +9000
  • Brice Garnett +11000

With no Munoz available to slot in this week, Patrick Rodgers is here as my go to FRL understudy. Dahmen and Kodaira are two players who profile well on Approach + Putting, albeit inconsistently, but at these odds seem worth the gamble to get off to a hot start. And finally as is the theme of the week, we can’t fade Garnett in Minnesota, so I’m clinging on to the hope that he finds the same putting magic that gained him over 13 strokes on the greens at The Travelers, if only just for one Thursday.

Top 20

  • Pat Perez +490
  • Brice Garnett +600
  • KH Lee +750

These are really great numbers, in my opinion, on two players in Perez and Garnett who fit this course’s profile very well coming in and are combined 4/4 in made cuts at the 3M Open. KH Lee is a leap of faith bet on a player who doesn’t necessarily profile well for TPC Twin Cities, but has been unflappable at TPC courses this season, making it through the cut 6 out of 6 times, including a win at TPC Craig Ranch and a T2 at TPC Scottsdale.

One and Done

  • Sergio Garcia

I continue to slowly crawl up the Mayo Cup standings toward the end of the season, currently in 63rd with just 5 events left to go in the season. I’ve been slowly inching my way along because I’ve taken a pretty conservative approach over the last month or so, but this week feels open enough that you can really differentiate yourself. Sergio won’t be the most popular play; if I had to guess, I would say Wolff, Finau, Bubba, and Grillo all go higher owned, but if I’m looking to make a bigger jump, I’m chasing the upside with Sergio, who unlike those other popular plays, actually has a win on Tour this season. Sergio’s elite ball striking should keep him in the mix at the top of the board this week, and he’ll finish as high up the leaderboard as his putter will allow him to.

DFS Core

  • Sergio Garcia ($9,900)
  • Matthew Wolff ($9,700)
  • Pat Perez ($7,100)

Last week’s DFS core of Spieth, DJ, and MacIntyre worked out pretty well with all three finishing inside the Top 10. This week, we’re living in the same core pricing range with Sergio, Wolff, and Perez. With the volatility of a birdie fest, I didn’t feel the need to pay the premium price this week on the DJ, Oosthuizen, or Finau’s of the world, so instead will be doubling down on the $9K range. Sergio and Wolff are both severely volatile and could easily each miss the cut here, but they also have a ceiling as high as anyone in the $10K+ range, which is why I bet them outright. Pat Perez is my favorite value of the week and just isn’t commanding the ownership he should given his course fit and recent form, but I’ll gladly jump on here for leverage rather than dipping any lower in the $6Ks.