BMW Championship Final Bets

My Final Thoughts: 2021 BMW Championship Final Betting Card, OAD, And DFS Plays

Short week. Busy week, Jam packed week. HBO business is COOKING so I honestly have not had a ton of time to sink into modeling and research since the Tournament Preview went out. I also managed to make it out to a Mets game this week, made my Forbes contribution debut, and hopped on the Longshots VSiN podcast, which was a lot of fun chatting with a group of guys much sharper than I. All of this basically happened in one day, which is insane to think back on. Crazy week, crazy day, and just like that, we’re locking the card. In short, I want guys who are long off the tee and can make birdies, because this course is designed to be bombed and gouged. Birdie the four Par 5s, Birdie three <350 yard Par 4s, and make par everywhere else, and you’re in position to win this week. I think it’s as simple as that here. Okay let’s look back on the final card.

Outrights (2u)

  • Rory McIlroy (+2800)
  • Bryson DeChambeau (+3500)
  • Joaquin Niemann (+6000)
  • Jason Kokrak (+8000)
  • Jhonattan Vegas (+13000)

In many ways it feels like The Northern Trust never happened last week, because my outright card was effectively dead before the weekend started. Now that we’ve turned the page with a clean slate, I’m going all in on Driving Distance. Bryson, Rory, and Niemann are long hitters who play well on courses that favor long hitters. It’s as simple as that! Beyond those three top dogs, I’m also adding in Jason Kokrak and Jhonattan Vegas who are long shots to finish ahead of all the elites in this field, but I’m sticking to my guns that this will be a birdie fest for longer hitters, so I rounded out the card with two more bombers. Distance, distance, distance.

At last year’s BMW Championship, I hit Jon Rahm live at +6600 after R1. That was the most nauseating closing stretch and playoff with Dustin Johnson I can ever remember following, but it ended up being my biggest cash of the 2020 season. I went into the Olympics this year with the same strategy with tight pricing and no cut to worry about, and I jumped on a good live number after R1 with Xander Schauffele, which also worked out well. So this time around on a brand new course we’re speculating can play a lot of different ways, I’ve held aside one TBD live bet after R1 which will likely go towards somebody who gets out to a slow start in the 30-40/1 range.

Finishing Positions (1u)

  • Jason Kokrak Top 10
  • Jhonattan Vegas Top 10

You can read up on all my rationale for Kokrak and Vegas in Bombs & Values as well as the Forbes article.

First Round Leader (0.5u)

  • Sam Burns +5000
  • Sebastian Munoz +7000
  • Mackenzie Hughes +70000
  • Keith Mitchell +100000

I’m going with a bunch of guys this week who are hungry to make a move into the Top 30 to get to East Lake and will be aggressively firing at pins all day Thursday. There were only so many 7+ birdie streaks I could see from Keith Mitchell before welcoming him to a FRL card, Mackenzie Hughes is capable of hitting every birdie putt in front of him in any given round, and Sam Burns & Sebastian Munoz are actually playing some good golf right now in addition to the fact that they always tend to explode in R1.

One and Done

  • Patrick Cantlay

This is it people, the final week of the Mayo Cup OAD season. As of this writing, I stand in 28th place out of 3,335 entries. For me, this was a decision between Cantlay, Hovland, and Niemann, and although I’m super confident in Niemann, Cantlay was the game theory play I landed on. He has been the second most picked player this season behind only Jon Rahm, and I assume most of the people ahead of me in the standings have already used him and capitalized on one of his high finishes. So with Cantlay, I feel like I’m getting a good all around player with a high floor who shouldn’t torpedo my current standing, but also has the high placing upside to move me up further as a contrarian play with so few others having him available. Wish me luck!

DFS Core

  • Rory McIlroy ($9,400)
  • Bryson DeChambeau ($9,300)
  • Joaquin Niemann ($8,100)

I have a really tight player pool this week. Maybe that’s due to me not exhaustively looking into everyone in this field, or maybe I just have a very specific type of player I think has a path to do well at this tournament. In any case, the three players I immediately bet outright to start my week, happen to also be my DFS core, as I believe they are all grossly underpriced and have clear paths to win this golf tournament. Bryson’s formula of bombing & gouging to cut off angles worked for him at Winged Foot and Bay Hill earlier this season, Rory’s journey to chase more speed paid off for him at his Wells Fargo win a couple months ago, and while Niemann hasn’t picked up a victory yet in 2021, he does have 3 runner ups on courses he’s needed to gut out birdies against charging fields. In addition to these guys, I really like Max Homa and Talor Gooch as salary savers with high upside and Mackenzie Hughes as a low owned leverage play.