Final Bets THE NORTHERN TRUST

My Final Thoughts: 2021 NORTHERN TRUST Final Betting Card, OAD, And DFS Plays

Tough act to follow, huh? It’s been a whirlwind of a week these last few days in the wake of manifesting Kevin Kisner’s Wyndham Championship win into existence. I picked up 700 new Twitter followers in that span, which has been neat, but also a load of people who are about to be disappointed when my golf picks don’t magically come to fruition every week. Hopefully for the new folks, we can just keep the trend going again this week and not have to worry about that.

I like Jordan Spieth this week. If I could make one bet, it would be on him. Anytime you put him on a course that doesn’t need to be over powered OTT and puts an emphasis on Approach, ARG, and Bent putting, he’s always going to be my first look. I’ve bet him twice this year at the Charles Schwab and The Open, he looked like he was going to win through about 63 holes both times, but ultimately finished runner up at each. This time, I expect the same 63 hole start, and will remain optimistic he doesn’t vomit all over himself on the final turn. Anyway, here’s a look back at my card for the week.

Outrights (4.6u)

  • Collin Morikawa (+1800)
  • Jordan Spieth (+1800)
  • Brooks Koepka (+2800)
  • Jason Kokrak (+7500)
  • Branden Grace (+10000)
  • Matthew Wolff (+15000)

So yeah, I got carried away with the outrights this week. I almost never dip below 20/1 on the odds board and have somehow managed to fit two players sub-20/1 on my card this week. I also never put more than 3 units into outrights on a card for a non-Major and have found myself at 4.6u total for the week. There are a number of reasons why I did that:

  1. I had 1u in free bets available, which I used in part on Collin Morikawa
  2. I’m working with an influx of bankroll thanks to our good pal Kevin Kisner and feeling loose having picked up the 6th outright of the year to guarantee overall profitability in 2021
  3. I’m going to be at this event and really want to make sure I’m over exposed to a few dogs in the hunt come Sunday

So with that, I love Morikawa and Spieth up top in a potential repeat of The Open at Royal St Georges. Brooks makes a lot of sense in a playoff event on a links style course, and the 28/1 promo boost on Caesar’s Sportsbook was impossible for me to pass up. Kokrak, Grace, and Wolff are flyers I’ve endorsed in my articles earlier this week with high upside despite the bomb price tag.

Matchups (2u)

  • Brooks Koepka (+110) > Bryson DeChambeau

Everything you need to know about this matchup written here.

First Round Leader (0.6u)

  • Sam Burns +6000
  • Shane Lowry +7000
  • Sebastian Munoz +9000
  • Matthew Wolff +11000

It’s the end of the season which means I have to roll out the FRL greatest hits in Burns and Munoz. Wolff is a #fate play after bumping into him last night at dinner, and Lowry is a player I believe stacks up really well for this course and needed some FOMO action on after not being able to squeeze him onto my card. I’ll be overweight on Lowry in DFS this week as well to make up for that.

One and Done

  • Scottie Scheffler

Full disclosure, I don’t feel great about this one. I have used up absolutely everyone at the top of the board at this stage of the season and am left grasping at straws for a viable fit at Liberty National. The options at my disposal this week are Patrick Cantlay (who I can’t play on the east coast), Viktor Hovland, Patrick Reed, Webb Simpson, and Scottie Scheffler. Besides Cantlay who I hate in this spot for narrative reasons, I’m feeling lukewarm on everyone in this spot. So with nothing jumping out to me in terms of feels, I’m deferring to the model, which tells me this is Scottie’s time. I like the Ryder Cup motivation narrative. I like that he’s one of only 5 players to enter this week averaging +1 stroke gained per round OTT, APP, ARG, and P over the last 24 rounds, and I like that Scottie rises to the occasion in big events, whether they be the FedEx Cup Playoffs, WGCs, or Majors. Scottie hasn’t quite been able to close out a win, but at this stage of the season, I’ll hapilly take anything inside the Top 10 from him.

DFS Core

  • Jordan Spieth ($10,800)
  • Collin Morikawa ($10,400)
  • Branden Grace ($7,200)

I’m starting my core where I’m starting my card, and that’s with the two players whose games stack up better for this course than anyone not named Jon Rahm. The more I’ve thought about this week, the more I expect a repeat of The Open, so I’m locking my exposure at the top to two guys in Morikawa and Spieth who finished 1-2 there. In terms of salary savers, I don’t think there’s a player more undervalued in both the odds board and DFS than Branden Grace, who rides in with 3 T10s in his last 4 starts, which includes high finishes at the Memorial and US Open to go along with a playoff loss last week at the Wyndham Championship. Grace finished T30 at Liberty National in 2019 despite losing 4.5 strokes putting, so now with a putter that’s as hot as it’s ever been before in his career, a T30 finish is beginning to look like his floor in big events.