Final Bets The Open Championship

My Final Thoughts: 2021 Open Championship Final Betting Card, OAD, And DFS Plays

It’s always a bit of a relief to get to the end of the road in a Major week. So much research, so much content to make, so much content to consume, and so much time to second guess every decision along the way. But in a week that can only be described as #FeelWeek, I’m actually feeling pretty confident with where I’ve landed on my gut picks as the dust settles this Wednesday. Here’s a look back at my final card and how I got there.

Outrights (6.5u)

  • Dustin Johnson +2000
  • Jordan Spieth +2200
  • Louis Oosthuizen +4400
  • Joaquin Niemann +8000
  • Francesco Molinari +8000
  • Marc Leishman +8000
  • Gary Woodland +9000
  • Victor Perez +20000

I began this outright card right after the November 2020 Masters when I thought to myself “I need to have Marc Leishman, Francesco Molinari, and Gary Woodland in all the 2021 Majors.” That was not a very sharp take as it turns out, as the numbers I bet these guys at the time (80-90/1), have been worse than the value available week-of pretty much every time. But on the other hand, it has given me a pretty good sweat on Marc Leishman at the 2021 Masters and Francesco Molinari who hung around the leaderboard at the 2021 US Open. I can’t say I’m in love with any of the 3 of them going into this week now, but each one of these veterans has upside to contend in their own ways. A future I feel less regret over, is Joaquin Niemann at 80/1, which I placed during his run at the Sony Open. At the time, I thought he’d just take over the game of golf and finish T5 every week thereafter, but instead, he’s waited until the Rocket Mortgage Classic in his latest start before making a run at serious contention again. I like the way Niemann is trending coming in now, and as a skilled ball striker who hits a controlled ball off the tee and can flight down his approaches beneath the wind, I think Niemann has a serious shot to contend, as far as his short game will allow him to.

In terms of the guys I actually wanted to bet this week, I have a lot of conviction at the top of my card behind DJ, Spieth, and Louis. Dustin Johnson has continued to fly more and more under the radar as the week’s gone on and I continue to find more reasons to like him thinking back on his Open history and ability to flip a switch without clear signs of form. He’s the world #1 and still has the best A game on the planet when he’s on. If DJ doesn’t win, I’m hoping for one of the bigger community wins in recent memory, which is what we’ll see if Jordan Spieth takes down his second career Open Championship. All signs are pointing his way as he rates out #1 SG: TOT L36 and #1 SG: TOT L24 Open Championships. Those are stats you’d expect for a 9/1 favorite, not somebody who’s remained at 20-22/1 all week. And then there’s Louis, who’s done everything but win in the previous two Majors at the US Open and PGA Championship. Now that he finally gets to tee it up on a shorter links courses, this is where we really should see Louis shine as he chases his first win since hoisting the Claret Jug in 2010. And it wouldn’t be a proper Open Championship without having one player at 200/1+ on the card, so we’ve got reigning Alfred Dunhill Links Champion Victor Perez to round it out. Perez has the links experience and upside in loaded fields this year with T10s at THE PLAYERS and WGC Dell Match Play.

First Round Leader

  • Russell Henley +8000
  • Stewart Cink +10000
  • Victor Perez +11000
  • Matt Jones +13000
  • Sebastian Munoz +15000

We did it, we finally did it. Sebastian Munoz has delivered on the long-promised FRL for the first time in 2021 at the John Deere Classic. Does it make sense to go back to Munoz on a difficult links course several days after the emotional let down of not closing out his Sunday lead at the JDC? No, but this is a tradition, and traditions aren’t meant to make sense, so Munoz remains here on the FRL card, hoping for a repeat.

The rest of my card is rounded out by friend of the FRL card, Matt Jones who cashed for us at the Honda Classic, Stewart Cink who cashed a FRL for somebody else at the RBC Heritage, and Victor Perez & Russell Henley who I just like to get off to a hot start.

Placing Bets

  • Stewart Cink (T20) +450
  • Matt Jones (T30) +450
  • Lucas Glover (T30) +450

Three veterans here who I praised handsomely in Blood, Sweat, and Tiers. I don’t always love the placing bet market, I’m more the type to spread smaller units out for big returns, but +450 is a return I can definitely get behind on three players I expect to profile well this week, given their track record on Links courses and similarly demanding conditions.

One and Done

  • Louis Oosthuizen

I placed an outright bet on Louis Oosthuizen the day after the US Open was over. At that moment in time, it felt like there were few other, besides Brooks or Rahm, who could be more trusted to get you a high finish in a 2021 Major than Louis Oosthuizen. A couple weeks have passed, and with players like Rahm and JT looking better and better in recent events since, it’s easy to forget how great Louis stacks up here. As we get to the end of OAD season, I no longer have Rahm, Rory, JT, Spieth, Brooks, DJ, or Xander available to play. It’s tough to say where I’d rank Louis in that group as far as OAD power ranking go this week, all things being equal, but even though he’s available to most players this week in OAD contests, I think most people are still going to side with one of those top 7 instead for the last Major of the year. Louis stepping up to a Major that finally is not on a gargantuan 7,600+ yard course and emphasizes short game, which he ranks #1 in L36, should only breed continued success for the 2010 Open Champion still searching for his first win since.

DFS Core

  • Dustin Johnson ($10,400)
  • Jordan Spieth ($9,700)
  • Robert MacIntyre ($7,300)

Jordan Spieth is the chalk of the week, Dustin Johnson and Robert MacIntyre, relative to their price range, are not. Chalk is usually hard to avoid in a Major week where pricing is always soft and the early release of the slate typically does not account for more recent performance. So while Jordan Spieth may well be the most popular play in DFS this week, I’m certain DJ and Bobby Mac will differentiate this core. Most weeks, these players at these prices would come at chalk ownership, but with so much chalk around them in their pricing tiers, there’s plenty of leverage value with them.