Final Bets Palmetto Championship

My Final Thoughts: 2021 Palmetto Championship Final Betting Card, OAD, And DFS Plays

The final day of Palmetto Championship week has finally come, and I couldn’t be happier, because as much as I’ve tried to get into this event, I simply don’t care. The below players are investments that I have made that hopefully will return money back into my pockets, but I want it to be known that wagering on players like Ricky Barnes and Luke List does not bring me any joy.

This week I really just want players who are strong on Approach & Short Game, specifically on Firm & Fast greens. That’s pretty consistent throughout the final card, so let’s get straight to it!

Outrights (2.5u)

  • Harris English +3000
  • Patton Kizzire +4500
  • Keith Mitchell +5500
  • Luke List +8000
  • Camilo Villegas +14000
  • Peter Uihlein +14000
  • Patrick Rodgers +17500

Remember when Harris English was elite? Most people chose to ignore how great he was playing because he’s not a freak talent or competitor, just really good at hitting fairways, striping irons and holing putts. English had a 10-event stretch last year from the Northern Trust to the Sentry Tournament of Champions where he he strung together 7 T12 or better finishes. He’s fallen off a bit since his Sentry TOC win, but that type of dominance doesn’t just go away completely, and with signs of life at The Masters (T21) and Byron Nelson (T13), two other courses with massive wide open fairways (and 0 other similarities), there’s enough reason to believe the #1 Firm & Fast putter in the field can return to his 2020 season glory this week.

I’ve profiled the rest of these plays in my Tournament Preview and Bombs & Values articles, each on the foundational premise that they are strong approach players and with very good short games who will be able to play this course out of the fairway for a change, which is a rarity for most of them. The one player I have not written up this week is Keith Mitchell, but he fits that exact same profile as well, and assuming his putter is not actually broken, he should feast on these pure Bermuda greens.

Placing Bets (0.5u)

  • Chase Seiffert (T20) +600

I always write up Seiffert as a DFS play, but I rarely put my money on him in the betting market. That changes this week for a player who profiles perfectly for what this course demands, and has shown the ability to fire off T20s recently this season at the Puerto Rico Open, Honda Classic, and Corales, which each draw comps to this event in their own unique ways, whether it be the Fazio connection or the wide open fairways.

First Round Leader (.5u)

  • Luke List +6600
  • Kevin Chappell +10000
  • Patrick Rodgers +10000
  • Ricky Barnes +17500

Things got a little crazy after taking a week off from Sebastian Munoz for this Thursday’s action. I have been vocal on Twitter about my love for Kevin Chappell in R1, just 8 starts removed from a FRL performance on the Safeway’s Southeastern Bermuda greens, and he seems to be fully recovered from some prior injury history after firing off a 2nd place R1 performance in his last Korn Ferry Tour appearance.

Ricky Barnes is a dart on a guy who inexplicably popped in my models but has the propensity to go on a birdie streak. Patrick Rodgers was nearly the First Round Leader at Quail Hollow if not for a late double bogey and rides in hot off a dominant 36-hole stretch at the Bear’s Club US Open Qualifier earlier this week, so he should carry some confidence coming into this event. Luke List is the course record holder and a player I expect to contend all week, assuming the putter cooperates, so the 66/1 odds seem like a bargain for one round.

One And Done

  • Harris English

I’ve already played DJ, Brooks, Sungjae, and Hatton, so I’m left with slim pickings at the top of the board. I could have gone with Matt Fitzpatrick, but there are a few tournaments the rest of the year I could see myself preferring to stash him for. With English, however, it’s now or never, as we’ll never see him sub 30/1 again on the odds board in 2021. I’m picking him to win outright due to his strength on Firm & Fast greens and success at Kapalua, where he was able to win in similar long, open fairway, elevated Bermuda green conditions. If English can tap into his Sentry TOC form, I’ll never say a bad word about the Palmetto Championship again.

DFS Core

  • Harris English ($9,900)
  • Sungjae Im ($9,700)
  • Chase Seiffert ($6,500)

I’m a big fan of the English/Im stack this week. They’re two top-tier players in this field who I actually believe are motivated to play well on this track and are not fully set on the week ahead at Torrey Pines. Both players are exceptional on Firm & Fast greens and Bermuda greens, so if this does come down to a putting contest like I expect it to, I think these guys will separate themselves from the pack. In order to free up that salary flexibility, I’m going to my favorite value in the $6K range in Chase Seiffert for my core. I’m betting him to finish Top 20 and if he pulls that off, he’ll easily pay off his price in a range where everyone else around him is effectively unplayable.