Final Bets RBC Heritage

My Final Thoughts: 2021 RBC Heritage Final Betting Card, OAD, And DFS Plays

Well, it’s tough to live up to Masters week, but if you’re like me and didn’t have Hideki Matsuyama or much of an outright sweat in general last Sunday, I’m sure you’re eager to turn the page, shuffle the cards, and deal a new week of possibilities at the RBC Heritage.

The 2020 RBC Heritage was the first tournament I covered from the @PGATout handle on Twitter, and as luck would have it, I got to sweat both Ancer and Webb and their 1-2 finish in my debut. It hasn’t always been that easy, but I’m feeling a good omen form those vibes to try and repeat again this year.

Overall this week I’m looking for guys who can hit fairways, are good on Approach, reliable around the greens, and have a good track record at Harbour Town and other Pete Dye tracks. Since Harbour Town is a popular public course, I’m also giving a nod to some of the locals from the South Carolina/Georgia area who have more familiarity with the grounds. With all that said, here’s a recap of my full betting card for this week and all the rationale that got me there.

Outrights

  • Collin Morikawa +2100
  • Brian Harman +4000
  • Charley Hoffman +5500
  • Chris Kirk +6500
  • Lucas Glover +9000
  • Michael Thompson +12500
  • JT Poston +13000

Doesn’t always work out this week, but pretty much every one on the Outright card has been talked up in either Bombs & Values or Faves & Fades. I have a lot of confidence in Morikawa, Harman, and Hoffman this week and am really happy with odds I was able to scoop each at. It’s a sneaky loaded field, so I don’t expect anyone to run away with it this week, but I’m hopeful that a few of these guys will be there on Sunday to make a concerted push. Glover and Thompson have the win equity and course history to back it up, so I’m happy to include these guys as Outright flyers as well.

Two very late adds for me were Chris Kirk and JT Poston. Poston is a Georgia native who has great familiarity with the course, and that has shown with two T10s in his only two career trips here. His recent form isn’t spectacular, but his Short Game has been great lately and he has shown over the course of his career that the putter can get hot at a moment’s notice. The shorter distance on this course should play to his advantage as well.

Chris Kirk was the last player I added to my card, knowing I wanted a lucky 7 play this week and three of those were in the 90+ bomb range already. I was narrowing the last spot between Si Woo Kim, Tommy Fleetwood, and Chris Kirk, but ultimately it was fairly easy decision as Kirk was the highest of those players in my model (12th) and at the best odds. His mediocre course history gave me some pause, but I love the state of his game right now and how his strength play into what this course demands, so I’m optimistic this week can be his best showing yet.

Placing Bets

  • Tom Hoge (T20): +600
  • Ben Martin (T30): +400

Two of my favorite value players for DFS this week as well, I like Hoge and Martin’s changes to make it through the cut and hang around the top of the leaderboard this week. I would be very surprised if they contended to win, but content with this action on them.

First Round Leader

  • Charley Hoffman +5000
  • Sebastian Munoz +8000
  • JT Poston +9000
  • Peter Malnati +15000
  • Wesley Bryan +20000

There were so many options to choose from this week, I had a hard time narrowing this down within my usual FRL budget. Just looking at the options out there, I have a firm belief that somebody 80/1+ is going to walk away Thursday with at least a share of the lead. This group includes a mix of players who have historically gone low at Harbour Town or have gone low in recent weeks coming into play here.

Matchups

  • Charley Hoffman +100 > Kevin Kisner
  • Collin Morikawa -125 > Will Zalatoris
  • Brian Harman -125 > Kevin Na

Took a week off from Matchups at the Masters in favor of some other props, but after a solid 2-1 showing at the Valero Texas Open, the season Matchup record has improved to 22-14-1. Here’s the action a head for this week.

Starting with my darling of this week, Charley Hoffman, I wasn’t going to be afraid to match him against many other people in this field, and Kevin Kisner certainly is not imposing his will coming into this week. It does feel like a Kisner track, being as it’s short, favors Short Game, and is in his back yard in Hilton Head, but his past results here haven’t blown me away, and the ball striking lately is not scaring me either. He is also experimenting with a new putting grip this week, and you know how I feel betting against a player in an experimental phase. At +100, Hoffman > Kisner is my favorite bet of the week.

Next we have two young studs in Morikawa and Zalatoris. I have been pushing the “Zalatoris should be in the same conversation as Morikawa, Hovland, Wolff, Niemann, Scheffler, and Sungjae for the games best rising stars” narrative ever since he burst onto the scene at Winged Foot. But while he’s high on that list for me, he isn’t ahead of Morikawa. I do not think there is any emotional hangover with Zalatoris, he’s plenty motivated to get his first career win and qualify for the FedEx playoffs, I just don’t love his Driving Accuracy and Putting for this track, and feel much more confident in Morikawa’s floor and ceiling.

Lastly we have Brian Harman, one of my Faves of the week versus Kevin Na, who I think is wildly over-priced and nearly made the Fades list. If you want to bet Kevin Na outright, sure go for it, the win equity is there and his Short Game is great for this track. But when he doesn’t win, he crashes and burns, and the likelihood of a Na blowup is far greater than that of a Na win based on his most recent form. I’ve talked at length about why I like Harman to win this tournament, so I’m not hesitating to bet him to finish ahead of Na.

One And Done

  • Charley Hoffman

There is not much of a purse at the RBC Heritage, so I don’t want to “waste” one of the top guys like Collin, Webb, or Cantlay here, especially if they’re going to command high ownership. Hoffman is a guy who I think I’m much higher on than most people are this week, so I don’t expect him to be a super popular play. It may seem risky to play a 55/1 guy in OAD, but Hoffman is #2 in my model this week behind only Patrick Cantlay, and I believe it with the way he has been playing. He has multiple T10s in his career at this event, he’s always putted well here, and he has the hottest T2G game of anyone coming into this week. He may not be a Pete Dye Specialist, but if that allows him to come in less owned than Abraham Ancer and Si Woo Kim, I’ll take it.

DFS Core

  • Webb Simpson ($10,700)
  • Collin Morikawa ($10,500)
  • Charley Hoffman ($7,800)

It is a bona fide Stars & Scrubs week for me, the most extreme case I think I’ve felt all season. Webb and Collin are two players I feel very distinctly confident in at the top of the board, so I want to pair them together in most if not all of my DFS lineups this week. Charley Hoffman is the #1 Ball Striker and #1 T2G player in the field coming into this week and you can get him in the $7K range, so I don’t care how popular he is, I’m playing him. As I wrote about in Bombs & Values, there are a plethora of options in the low $7K to $6K range, so I’m happy to mix and match these guys to round out my lineups. Thompson, Grillo, Hoge, Martin, Furyk, Seiffert, and Knox are just a quick list of viable plays this week that can all still fit into a lineup with this core.