The PGA TOUR really knows how to go out with a dud, don’t they? After an incredible super season, I am left here today feeling completely uninspired and unenthused to bet our championship event where one of the game’s elites will be crowned the FedEx Cup Champion and awarded $15M. In a 30 man field, I see no value in betting Matchups, Finishing Positions, First Round Leader, or Outrights in the Adjusted Scoring format. I don’t even have OAD to look forward too anymore until January! What’s left of this card is a few ho hum Non-Adjusted Scoring Outrights, a couple random props, and some closing thoughts on DFS startegy.
Overall looking at the event ahead of us, I really don’t think there’s any merit to handicapping motivation. There’s a lot of money on the line, and while the $15M grand prize is only attainable for a select few, they still pay out $1M to anyone who finishes inside the Top 8, which is still up for grabs for all 30 players in this week’s field. We’re also about to hit the off season for several weeks, so there’s no reason to hold back now. Here’s a look back at the state of the final card of the 2021 Tour Season.
Outrights (Non-Adjusted Scoring) (3u)
- Jordan Spieth (+2500)
- Louis Oosthuizen (+2700)
- Viktor Hovland (+2800)
I actually feel really good about the value on all three of these guys, and even though it’ll feel anticlimactic if any of these guys achieve the low net score of the week without hoisting a trophy, it’ll still pay us out just the same as any other week of outrights, so I don’t care! The odds were all over the place this week and nobody fluctuated more than Jordan Spieth, who was as low as 12/1 on FanDuel in this market and as high as 25/1 on Bet MGM, where I scooped this bet up. Spieth set the Liberty National course record 7 rounds ago and still ranks 3rd in this field SG: TOT over the last 50 rounds. I’m not going to let a few bad rounds inbetween here and there distract me from a prime buy low spot on an elite player who we know can peforrm well here with a win under his belt at East Lake back in 2015. Similar to Spieth, I’m also buying low on Louis Oosthuizen for all the same reasons. A shadow leaderboard win seems to be a perfectly fitting end to Louis 2021 PGA Tour campaign, and we won’t need to worry about nerves down the stretch as he’s likely too far down the staggered leaderboard to make a concerted push at 1st. With Viktor Hovland, we’re also buying low on a steady, elite ball striker who just needs to stay lukewarm with the putter this week to hang a low number.
Random Props (1.5u)
- 1st/2nd Finish (any order): Jon Rahm / Patrick Cantlay (+900)
- Jon Rahm Outright Win + 2022 Masters Outright Win (+5000)
You can read up on the Rahm/Cantlay prop rationale here.
I tried the Masters parlay as a hedge last week and I’m going right back to it this week. In both tournaments, I really think Rahm should win, but I don’t like the value on its own at either. Since I’m betting all my outrights in non-adjusted scoring, this also has equity to win along with one of the other outrights, so this feels like a good time to surround the board on a slight hedge.
- Jon Rahm ($13,000)
- Louis Oosthuizen ($7,600)
- Kevin Na ($6,000)
As I’ve said all week, my expectation is that Jon Rahm becomes the 2021 FedEx Cup Champion. He deserves it more than anyone this year, and I trust he will erase the 4 stroke deficit behind Patrick Cantlay fairly quickly on a difficult course that suits him very well. This is not a hot or bold take on the odds-on favorite, I just don’t see an outcome where it doesn’t happen. So because of that, he’s fixated into my lineups this week, even despite the gaudy ownership. To make up for that however, I’m pairing him with my two favorite leverage plays of the week in Louis Oosthuizen and Kevin Na, who are each in the bottom half of the field in both salary and projected ownership. People will shy away from Louis’ injury history, but I can look past that pretty comfortably with the discounted price/ownership in mind. I love that we’re getting a -2 head start with Na at $6,000, the cheapest of any player starting -2 or better, and I especially love that he enters this tournament in his best form of the year on the heels of 5 consecutive T25 finishes. He’s always liable to pop off with the putter like Patrick Cantlay did last week, and if he does, there’s a clear path for Na to finish T15, which is all you need at this price.