Final Bets Travelers Championship

My Final Thoughts: 2021 Travelers Championship Final Betting Card, OAD, And DFS Plays

The Travelers is an awesome event, super fun to watch, the crowds are always electric, and players can’t stop talking about how much they love coming here. All of those positive vibes have buoyed my interest much higher than they ever should be in the wake of last week’s momentous US Open. So, even though it’s a Major hangover week, I’ve still got a full card and my full attention on this event anyway. Here’s a look at all my action for the week ahead and how/why I got there.

Outrights (3u)

  • Abraham Ancer +3500
  • Joaquin Niemann +4400
  • Russell Henley +5500
  • Si Woo Kim +6000
  • Rickie Fowler +8500
  • Stewart Cink +10000
  • Chris Kirk +15000

There is a growing sentiment across the golf gambling community. “I’m sick of throwing my money away on Abraham Ancer every week, he’s never won”. I totally disagree with that thinking. Every week, I bet somewhere between 5-7 golfers, so even when I hit a winner, my card is always filled with losers. Since the COVID restart, Ancer has as many PGA Tour wins as other popular players in this field like Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, Paul Casey, Charley Hoffman, Brian Harman, Cameron Tringale, Kevin Streelman, Matthew Wolff, Joaquin Niemann, and Bubba Watson – 0. It’s hard to win! And if you want to apply the logic that win-less players just can’t handle the pressure of closing out a tournament, that’s fair! Chesson Hadley couldn’t handle it at Palmetto, Cameron Tringale couldn’t handle it at Valero, Doug Ghim couldn’t handle it at The Players, Aaron Wise couldn’t handle it at the Honda. It’s a thing! But folding while in contention has never been in Ancer’s DNA, which is why bettors can’t stop going back to him. He has two runner ups since the restart, and on Sunday for each of those results, he fired a 66 at Wells Fargo and a 65 at the RBC Heritage. He was just bested those days by two elite players who brought their A games on Sunday in Rory McIlroy and Webb Simpson. So yes, I’m going back to Abe Ancer at the Travelers in a week where he rates out #1 in my model, unafraid of his PGA Tour win virginity.

The constant theme of the rest of my card is pretty simple. Good history on comp Pete Dye and Short Courses in 2021. Niemann, Henley, Si Woo, Cink, and Kirk have all played their best golf this year on short course events this year like the Sony Open, The AmEx, AT&T Pro-Am, RBC Heritage, and the Valspar, and finding success on short courses has proven to be repeatable for strong showings at the Travelers Championship looking through the list of past winners here. Rickie Fowler has mixed short course history, but he’s a pure value play for me on a guy who has shown signs of vintage form in his last two starts.

Euro Outrights

  • Stephan Jaeger +6600

I know absolutely nothing about the Euro Tour. But every now and then I’ll scroll through the odds board and see if anything catches my eye, and for the first time this year, I finally felt compelled to dabble. Jaeger is one of the biggest rising stars on the Korn Ferry Tour, with 9 T10s over the past year, including 2 wins. Jaeger’s name is also “Jaeger”, and he’s a bomb at 66/1, so I’m not going to resist sweating a Jaeger Bomb, especially a Jaeger Bomb in a German-sponsored event in this BMW International Open played in his motherland of Germany.

Placing Bets (3u)

  • Stewart Cink (T20) +350
  • Ryan Moore (T40) +230

I’m spoken at length about my love for Stewart Cink this week and wrote up this T20 play in my Prop, Lock, & Drop It article. Ryan Moore was also a Bombs & Values feature with a tremendously high floor and steady history at the Travelers and other comp short courses.

First Round Leader (.5u)

  • Russell Henley +6600
  • Doc Redman +7000
  • Emiliano Grillo +7000
  • Sebastian Munoz +10000
  • Will Gordon +15000

We got yet another close call from the weekly Munoz FRL sweat at the US Open when our boy pulled up to his final Par 5 one stroke off the lead in need of a Birdie to chop. Instead, in classic Munoz ejection style, he Double-bogeyed it. But as he continues to knock on the door for that first FRL of 2021, it seems imminent that it would come at this course where a 60 is very much in play for him. If it isn’t Munoz I’m looking for other players who have the ability to go low in a given round at longer odds, so I’ve landed on Henley, Redman, Grillo, and Gordon who all possess the ability to go low on this track.

One And Done

  • Abraham Ancer

Things are getting interesting now in OAD, as after nailing Jon Rahm for my second OAD winner of the year, I now find myself in 91st place in the Mayo Cup with just 9 weeks remaining. I do still have some heavy hitters available for this week like Patrick Cantlay, Patrick Reed, and Scottie Scheffler, but I’m going to save them for a bigger purse event down the stretch with a Major, WGC, and FedEx Playoffs still to play. Truthfully, I’d give Ancer as good a chance as any of those three to win this week, and I like that he is coming in a little fresher after an early exit from Torrey Pines. Ancer is a model of consistency at short, Pete Dye courses, and we know he wants to get a win bad, so this lines up as a perfect OAD position for Abe.

Oh and one other thing, I’m heading down to Mexico next week to play at Mayakoba, so going down to celebrate the week after the pride of Mexico wins his first career Tour event feels meant to be.

DFS Core

  • Scottie Scheffler ($9,600)
  • Rickie Fowler ($7,300)
  • Stewart Cink ($7,300)

However many lineups I make this week, I think they will all end up have two players at $7,300. A majority of them will have Fowler & Cink, two guys who crushed at the last short Pete Dye event we saw in the RBC Heritage and project <10% ownership, but I will definitely be sprinkling in some Grillo, Kirk, and Todd lineups too. There are a lot more viable $6K plays than most weeks for the Travelers, most notably Vincent Whaley, and Ryan Moore, but this is not a week where I feel I have to dip too far below $7,300. I don’t have outright action on Scottie Scheffler because 26/1 odds for a player who’s never won felt a bit rich, but if his number got to 30/1+, he would have definitely found his way on my card, so being overweight on the birdie-making maestro this week in DFS feels like the right consolation.