Final Bets US Open

My Final Thoughts: 2021 US Open Final Betting Card, OAD, And DFS Plays

We’ve reached the end of another action packed Major week already. As is the case with every other Major week, I’ve spent enough time writing about, talking about, reading about, and listening to content for the US Open, that I’ve started to come full circle and second guess everything I once thought at the start of the week. Truly a tradition unlike any other. In reality, there’s no reason to over think this event. The best all-around players coming into Torrey Pines with good form, who’ve proven to contend in US Opens year over year will be best suited to contend once again this week, and players with extra Distance off the tee will have a leg up. As I locked up my card for the week, I tried to remind myself of those core principles. Man, it feels good to have all the prep done and out of the way so we can kick back and enjoy the US Open for the next 4 days. Here’s a look back at where my card settled.

Outrights (7u)

  • Justin Thomas +2400
  • Collin Morikawa +2550
  • Patrick Reed +3500
  • Charley Hoffman +11000
  • Akshay Bhatia +85000
  • Gary Woodland +8000 (2020 Future)
  • Francesco Molinari +15000 (2020 Future)
  • Ryan Palmer +21000 (2020 Future)

On a typical week I try to put in 3 units worth of outrights to net out 24 units in profit on a winner. With a Major, I always up the ante to get to a 50 unit payout on the winner, and so the stakes of my card have really concentrated towards the top of the outright board. While everyone is chasing distance to repeat what Bryson achieved at Winged Foot in 2020, I held back patiently to find value on the top T2G players in the field this week, who’ve gone a bit overlooked. Justin Thomas and Collin Morikawa are two of the best iron players in the world, they’ve just been scary bad with the putter in recent weeks. For both players, a trip back to Poa should be a welcomed sight, and I’m hoping their advantage with the irons hitting into these small greens should set them up with plenty of birdie opportunities whenever they’re able to hit from the fairways. Patrick Reed, the defending champ at Torrey Pines this past January, is the player I’m most confident will hang around all week toward the top of the leaderboard. He conquered Torrey Pines in January, he always contends at long, difficult courses, and has been knocking on the door at US Opens for the last 4 years.

Moving into the bombs range, I also scooped up Charley Hoffman at insulting 110/1 odds for a player in hotter form than most anyone else in this field, returning to his home town of San Diego no less. It’s also a homecoming for Akshay Bhatia who comes home to California to make his US Open debut. This bet is an homage to one of my favorite players on Tour, who’s probably not going to win, but will begin to pick up wins on Tour soon.

I also placed Futures shortly after the 2020 US Open on Gary Woodland, Francesco Molinari, and Ryan Palmer. I’m not exceptionally high on any of them now coming back into this week, but the bets were placed so long ago, it does sort of feel like a free roll, so that’s nice!

Placing Bets (1.25u)

  • Charley Hoffman (T20) +300

I’ve talked about Charley Hoffman in every piece of content I’ve written this week. I love him for every conceivable reason you could think of, and +300 on William Hill is a value I’m happy to hop all over.

First Round Leader (.5u)

  • Charley Hoffman +6600
  • Sam Burns +8000
  • Sungjae Im +8000
  • Wilco Nienaber +125000
  • Sebastian Munoz +15000

I put very little strategic thought into these FRLs, just went with my gut on some high upside values in the 66/1+ range. Hoffman has become a staple FRL bet in Majors over his career, Burns was nearly the First Round Leader last time we were at Torrey Pines in January and has always had a ceiling to go low one round at a time, Sungjae is just purely too talented to be listed at 80/1 and has the putting ability to string together birdies, and Nienaber is just a freak unknown talent I wanted a little exposure to. Of course there’s also Munoz at his highest FRL price of the year at 150/1, so he’s back on the card again as per usual.

One And Done

  • Jon Rahm

I deliberated the entire week whether to go Rahm or Reed here. If this was the very beginning of the season, I think I would definitely side with Reed. But as I took myself back to the beginning of the week, I was 100% sold on betting Jon Rahm to win, before I saw every other elite player in the field slip to almost double his number. So although I couldn’t bet him, it doesn’t change the fact I think he sets up with the best chance to with this event of anyone else in the field. In the Mayo Cup, Rahm has already been selected by 74% of the field, so even if it feels chalky to play the odds on favorite in a Major, there’s only so many people left who are still able to play him. With this purse at stake, I can’t imagine a better time to save Rahm for than right here, right now.

DFS Core

  • Justin Thomas ($9,700)
  • Patrick Reed ($9,000)
  • Charley Hoffman ($7,200)

I do not like the $6K range this week, which pretty much removes the top of the DFS board for me and forces me to go for a more balanced mix. Because of that, I’m going to be starting my lineups with 2 players in the $9K range and try to avoid the chalkiest players like Rory and Xander. Instead, I’m pivoting to two players I love enough to throw outrights on, in JT and Reed. I like them for different reasons here, as JT’s T2G game, specifically the Ball Striking, have been on fire leading in. Reed on the other hand will rely on his class short game to hang around all week, just as he did for his win at the Farmers Insurance Open. The lowest I’ll probably dip to with my balanced lineups is Charley Hoffman at $7,200, who I also believe can win this tournament, and presents better T20 upside than anyone else in the lower $7K range.