Final Bets Valspar Championship

My Final Thoughts: 2021 Valspar Championship Final Betting Card, OAD, And DFS Plays

Wednesday already, and after countless hours of dissecting the odds board and DFS slates, the ink has dried and the card is fully locked for the 2021 Valspar Championship. I’m looking for good Par 5 Scorers and solid T2G players with a focus on Approach and ARG this week. That simple formula is what helped the below players jump out to make the final card, so let’s jump in for a full review!

Outrights

  • Paul Casey +2200
  • Corey Conners +2600
  • Jason Kokrak +4000
  • Charley Hoffman +4500
  • Ryan Palmer +5500
  • Max Homa +7500

I have restrained myself from hoisting any super longshot bombs this week, and that’s a testament to my confidence in the two guys at the top of the board in Casey and Conners. I rarely bet multiple guys in the 20/1 range, but these are two players I expected to open in the teens, so I’m excited about the value.

Kokrak, Hoffman, and Palmer each rank out highly in Par 5 Scoring, which I’m all in on this week, and their course history gives reason for optimism for each. Kokrak may be too popular to play in DFS, but he has 3 T10s in his last 4 events played and 3 T10s in the last 5 years at this event. Hoffman is seemingly the top player in every key stat category week over week for me and is due for a 2021 win soon. Palmer is a guy I rarely bet, but seems to have everything working for him trending into this week.

Homa was a late add this week, but 75/1 just seemed like the books were baiting me to take the #1 Par 5 scorer on Tour, so I gave in. I don’t care much about his lack of history here, he’s clearly shown he’s developed into a more complete player in 2021 with proven success on other difficult scoring tracks.

Placing Bets

  • Brandt Snedeker (T20): +600
  • Danny Willett (T20): +600

It was tough to narrow down in this range, but ultimately I took a conservative route with Sneds and Willett in two guys who have had steady course history here over the years and rate out well in the top key stats for this week, mainly Par 5 Scoring and SG: TOT in Difficult Scoring Conditions.

First Round Leader

  • Keegan Bradley +8000
  • Adam Hadwin +8000
  • Talor Gooch +8500
  • Brandt Snedeker +10000

Something about this 80-100/1 range really caught my eye this week. Keegan Bradley is my favorite value on the list, as this track has historically favored great T2G players and leveled the playing field for mediocre putters. I still don’t think his putter is at the point to allow him to compete for 4 days, but I love the value here to take a chance for one round. Sneds is another guy I absolutely love in one round increments here and think he can go low if the putter stays hot on Thursday.

Matchups

  • Corey Conners -125 > Viktor Hovland
  • Chris Kirk -120 > Emiliano Grillo
  • Jason Kokrak +100 > Scottie Scheffler

A 3/3 Matchup sweep at the RBC Heritage brought the season Matchup record up to a very respectable 25-14-1. After a week off, I’m ready to keep building!

Conners vs Hovland is the rare opportunity for me to play a Fave versus a Fade. I don’t like that Hovland is making his debut here, nor the state of his short game on a track that will exaggerate those flaws. And with Corey Conners as my Outright and OAD selection (spoiler alert), I have confidence in him regardless of the match up this week.

I needed to get some exposure to Kirk this week, and with him looking to be one of the biggest DFS chalk plays on Draft Kings, I thought some Matchup exposure would be the next best thing. Grillo, like Hovland, is exactly the type of player I want to target against with his terrible short game.

Last we have Jason Kokrak, who dominates this course perennially, going against Scottie Scheffler who has never made an appearance here and rides in with good, but not spectacular form. This is not so much a bet against Scheffler, as I think this will be a full 4 day sweat, it is more so a bet of confidence in Jason Kokrak (what could possibly go wrong).

One And Done

  • Corey Conners

I no longer have Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, or Paul Casey at my disposal in OAD, so according to my power rankings this week, that makes Corey Conners the next man up and best remaining player to roster this week. I don’t know how long this heater is going to last for Conners, but it’s hard to believe I’ll have a chance to play him in better form on a course that fits his game better than Innisbrook at any point later in the season, so the time is now to play Conners in OAD. He’s going to pound fairways, and he’s going to hit a sizeable clip of Greens in Regulation, so this will come down to how many birdie putts Conners can hole, and how many pars he can scramble for when he does miss the greens.

DFS Core

  • Charley Hoffman ($8,700)
  • Alex Noren ($7,300)
  • Chase Seiffert ($6,600)

This was a challenging week for me to refine down a core, because I have a longtail of $7K value guys I just love this week. Because of that, I looked a bit more closely at ownership projections than I usually do to make a final call. Hoffman was my conviction play of the week at the RBC Heritage, and though he was fairly pedestrian, I’m ready to go right back to that well for a player that fits this course extremely well and can get Eagles and Birdie Streaks for DK Scoring. Of all the $7K players, I think Noren may have the highest floor and ceiling with his recent play, and I’m excited to see how he fares on the Par 3s and 5s where he ranks out so well. Chase Seiffert is the most mispriced player on the board this week in my opinion, and I still think his ownership won’t be crazy, maybe 7%.