Final Bets Wells Fargo Championship

My Final Thoughts: 2021 Wells Fargo Championship Final Betting Card, OAD, And DFS Plays

Wednesday means the end of another long week of prep, this time for the Wells Fargo Championship. It’s been a fun tournament to research, with some interesting trends of Distance + Streaky putting from the historical winners here, and it’s led to some really great dialogue across the industry on Twitter. But, now that that’s all over with, my card is all locked with the below plays.

One note before jumping in, I am taking a week off of matchup plays this week. The reason is two-fold: I had a hard time taking a stance on the listed plays this week with so many good players cluttered at the top, and I just loved the value I was seeing on placement props this week, so I shifted more units there this time around. Okay, let’s get into it!

Outrights

  • Patrick Reed +3100
  • Will Zalatoris +3300
  • Joaquin Niemann +3600
  • Harold Varner III +9000
  • Francesco Molinari +12500
  • Talor Gooch +12500

For the thousandth time, it is Will Zalatoris week and I am pumped to see him go out there tomorrow and finally put an end to the “when will he win?” speculation for the prodigal 24-year old rookie. If I had one bet this week, it’d be an outright on him, and the only reason I’m not playing him in OAD this week, is because my OAD picks have been a kiss of death all season long.

I wrote about Patrick Reed and how he consistently dominates long difficult tracks, so I love the 31/1 number. Joaquin Niemann is a guy I have not talked much about yet this week. 36/1 is definitely a value bet for me on a guy as talented as Niemann who rides in hot off of T8 at Valspar. Niemann is a Top 10 player T2G, BS, and OTT, so he’ll go as far as his short game takes him. Last week he gained 7.5 strokes with his short game, and he’s gained 3+ strokes putting in his last 3 measured rounds, so there’s plenty reason for optimism there. He’s also Top 10 in both Driving Distance and Birdies or Better Gained coming in, so I’m not passing up on the 36/1 gift of a number.

HVIII, Francesco Molinari, and Talor Gooch were each written up in Bombs & Values and all have a combination good Course History and great measurables in the SG and Proximity stats that matter this week.

Placing Bets

  • Patrick Rodgers (T20) +950
  • Cameron Percy (T20) +1000
  • Seamus Power (T20) +1400

It would shock me if all three of these players finished in the Top 20, but it is statistically possible. At these odds and the units I’ve put in, I only need one of these props to hit to be profitable for the week overall, so I’m ready to swing for the fences. Whenever you get a late Monday Q like Seamus Power added to the field, you’re likely to catch books off guard in how to price them, and that’s exactly what happened with Bet MGM’s +1400 number versus the typical +750 valuation I was seeing across most other books. Cameron Percy is a really great T40 consideration this week, but I got a little greedy for this T20 number on a guy who profiles perfectly for the hole distances on this track, even if he lacks distance. Rodgers came through for me with a T20 at the Genesis earlier this year, so I’m happy to go back to him again here at a track he’s had success on which favors his strengths of distance and hot putting.

First Round Leader

  • Harold Varner III +8000
  • Sebastian Munoz +10000
  • Will Gordon +15000
  • Seamus Power +15000
  • Patrick Rodgers +16000

Looking to go back to back after last week’s Keegan 80/1 FRL cash, I’m going big game hunting with these bombs, all 80/1+. It seems unfair that I’ve hit 2 FRLs over the last two months and neither have been on Sebastian Munoz, so it’s starting to feel like his time is due. If he doesn’t win, I’ve surrounded him with high-upside birdie makers who can go low one round at a time. Gordon, Power, and Rodgers are each long hitters and great putters which bodes very well for this track. Power was even the de facto FRL at the Monday Qualifier two days ago, shooting a 62 to get into this tournament, so there’s no question he has a low round in him.

One And Done

  • Bryson DeChambeau

As I mentioned at the top, my OAD picks are a kiss of death, otherwise Will Zalatoris would be my guy. Instead, I’m going to Bryson DeChambeau who was #1 in my model this week for good reason. If my outrights don’t hit this week, I’m most afraid it will be because of Bryson DeChambeau, so I’m mostly just using this as a hedge so the rest of my card can remain curse-free.

DFS Core

  • Jon Rahm ($10,800)
  • Will Zalatoris ($9,300)
  • Justin Suh ($6,100)

Justin Suh is the wildcard of the week at Wells Fargo. We don’t really know what his ownership is going to be, as he was a late addition to the field on a sponsors exemption, but at this total miss-price, he should get up to ~10% owned. Even though he should, I don’t think he will, because there’s not a lot of data on him, he doesn’t play often, he has no course history, and he’s not a super well known player. But from a talent perspective, he’s pretty much right on par with Doug Ghim, his Zurich Classic playing partner, so I would’ve expected a $7K price to be more appropriate. He’s good enough to make the cut on his talent alone, but even if he misses the cut, this price unlocks salary for the top of the board and won’t kill you as a 5/6 lineup in the worst case scenario. With that salary relief, you can then squeeze in my presumptive 1-2 finishers, Will Zalatoris and Jon Rahm.