Final Bets WGC Dell Match Play

My Final Thoughts: 2021 WGC Dell Match Play & Corales Championship Final Betting Card, OAD, And DFS Plays

It’s a double duty week of golf, as we’ll get to see the world’s best square up in Match Play and…everyone else tee it up in Punta Cana! Truthfully this is not my favorite week to bet, as there really is not a ton of value worth taking on at the top of the board with so much volatility in Match Play, but I’ll still have plenty of action in DFS to put my game theory to the test.

While I definitely went lighter on the SG research and analytics this week, I think this stacks up as a sound card with plenty of potential to keep the week ahead interesting!

WGC Dell Match Play Outrights

  • Max Homa +9000
  • Kevin Na +10000
  • Matthew Wolff +12500
  • Brendon Todd +12500
  • Carlos Ortiz +12500

I am putting game theory to the test with this card. Match Play is so difficult to accurately predict, it doesn’t seem worth it to me to bet on anyone under 30/1. Each of these five players I believe have the second best chance to advance from their groups, and are scattered across the 4 quadrants of the bracket to maximize potential to advance to the Semi-Finals if all goes according to plan. In the event that all five of these guys do not advance out of opening group play, I left enough bankroll on the side to live bet one more player in the round of 16 if I still see some value on the board.

Corales Championship Outrights

  • Roger Sloan +4500
  • Justin Suh +4500
  • Camilo Villegas +9000

I didn’t intend to bet the Corales Championship this week, and as such, did absolutely no research for the event, so take these picks with a grain of salt. But after a good opening weekend of March Madness, I had some new found money to blow, so here we go. I’m not completely blind to Corales, though. It’s the first tournament to be contested twice in a COVID world, so I still remember following this along just six months ago when Hudson Swafford won last September. What stuck out to me while watching that event was how good Justin Suh looked. He was amongst the top of the leaderboard heading into the weekend and dwindled slightly to a T14 finish. Since then, he’s only played 4 other events, so I’m thinking this should feel like a familiar return for Suh. In addition to him, I think I’m committed to regularly throwing a few bucks on Roger Sloan for the foreseeable future until he wins. He flies under the radar with a great all around game and seems due to break out soon. With Villegas, I saw enough at the Honda to buy in at 90/1 against an even worse field this week.

Doubles

  • Bryson DeChambeau & Charley Hoffman to win Outright Parlay +30100

If all goes according to plan this week in Austin and Punta Cana, my expectation is that Bryson and Hoffman will win. They are each playing golf at their highest level currently and come into both events with the best recent form in their respective fields. There is not a sport where everything goes according plan any less than golf, that’s why this pays out 301/1, but hey, worth a shot!

One And Done

  • Tyrrell Hatton

This is the riskiest OAD week of the year. It’s the most volatile event on Tour, and also has one of the highest paying purses. I expect that more than half of the Top 10 players in the world will not advance out of Group Play just looking historically at how this event has played out, so I’m avoiding any top players in a challenging opening group. In Tyrrell Hatton’s case, I’m not concerned about his group adversaries. Lee Westwood seems to have exhausted himself over the last several weeks, Matt Wallace has not shown any recent promise coming off back to back MCs, and despite Sergio’s great match play career, I’ll definitely take my chances on Hatton heads up. There are also not many opportunities to play Hatton in OAD with him playing a majority of his events on the Euro Tour, so I don’t feel like I need to save him any longer beyond this week.

DFS Core

  • Bryson DeChambeau ($10,900)
  • Max Homa ($7,400)
  • Brendon Todd ($6,400)

I believe very firmly in a Stars & Scrubs build this week. There are only 16 players that will advance out of Group play, and that means 48 players in this field are going to get you little to no points. If that’s the case I’d rather pay close to the minimum price for a dud if it means I can afford for the two players who make it to the Finals. There’s also a good chance if you do have the two players in the Finals in your lineup, you’re probably going to cash regardless of how the rest of your lineup performs. So this week my expectation is that Bryson DeChambeau wins, and I’m starting my lineup there. He does not miss putts inside 8 feet, his around the green game is far better than people give him credit for, and while his susceptibility to Doubles or Worse may take him out of contention at Stroke Play events, that won’t be the case here. At the risk of sounding too obvious, I’m trying to build my lineup around a Bryson & Rahm Finals stack, so adding players at the bottom of the board like Homa and Todd provide salary relief with good opportunity to advance from the first round.