Happy Succession S3 Premiere Week everyone! The thought of why I’ve been tweeting less and skipping the Props articles the last couple weeks probably has not crossed your mind this week, but if it has, it’s because I’ve been entrenched in pumping out ads to remind people to tune in to Succession this Sunday, 10/17 @ 9PM on HBO and HBO Max. There really are few busier times for HBO these days than the days leading up to a new Succession season, so please spread the word, watch, and write nice things about it on Twitter. We even bought a Twitter Promoted Trend this Sunday to make it easier for you!
Oh right, back to the CJ Cup. It’s a top heavy field for the first time of the 2022 Season, so I’m ignoring the middle and bottom of the odds board from an outright perspective, tightening up the card, and loading up on elites. In the end, we should see another birdie fest that pushes past 20 under par, so I’ll be looking at players who can pile up birdies and get streaky on Bent Grass greens this week. Here’s a look back at my action for the 2022 CJ Cup.
- Collin Morikawa +1600
- Brooks Koepka +3000
- Tony Finau +3000
I think that Collin Morikawa wins this golf tournament. That’s why he’s so prominently featured in the thumbnail of this article. That doesn’t make me special, it doesn’t make me unique, I just see a lot of signs pointing his way that justify him being one of the most tipped golfer of the week. He’s of course a member here on a course that will be completely foreign to 99% of the field which helps, but that’s not the only reason I’m in on him, given this really isn’t a strategists course and can be picked up pretty quickly in the practice rounds. I like Collin because he’s familiar with the greens, which should make it a little less questionable whether he can piece together an above average putting performance here. It’s not a long golf course, which means we don’t have to discount his average distance off the tee, and the three short par 4s are driveable for him, which he’s proven he can take advantage of repeatedly. His numbers have taken a dip over the last couple months due to injury, however his dominance at the Ryder Cup was enough to convince me he’s back to being healthy, and for what it’s worth, he’s said he’s ready to go in the media with no injury concerns. Even while playing injured at The Olympics at Kasumigaseki, one of the top comp Fazio courses to The Summit Club, Collin still put together an impressive T4 finish, so I’m optimistic he can build on that towards another win this week.
I’m not one to bet Brooks often, and I’ll never reach to pay up for him when he’s the favorite to win a non-Major like we saw at TPC Summerlin last week, but if we can buy the dip on Brooks, I’ll be there, and that’s exactly what we have here this week with Brooks at 30/1. In a week’s time, Brooks’ odds have doubled while the size of the field has been halved. The strength of field has notably increased, but Brooks didn’t look that bad last week to justify such a dip. His Ball Striking has been fine over the last 3 months, and recently it’s really just been the putter that’s let him down, which we know is due for some positive regression soon. Brooks does not like to lose and coming off a disappointing week with most of his Ryder Cup teammates now back to square off, I expect him to be more motivated as he goes for his second career CJ Cup victory.
Speaking of USA Ryder Cup, I decided to round out my card with all Americans, hoping to carry the momentum from that victory with Tony Finau. Tony went from losing everything since 2016 to winning two of his last four events between The Northern Trust and the Ryder Cup. I’m a believer that once you get the monkey off your back and prove to yourself that you can win on the PGA Tour, the floodgates will open as a player is able to loosen up more. That’s what we’ve seen with Sam Burns since the Valspar, and I expect a similar continued trajectory from Finau in 2022. What put me over the top on Tony though is his dominance on Desert courses. His last 5 starts on Desert golf courses have resulted in finishes of 4, T2, 2, T14, and T9. On this wide open, thin aired track at elevation, I expect Tony Finau to bomb away freely, which should set up easy approaches in for birdie opportunities. In Finau’s last 3 starts on Bent Grass greens, he’s gained 6, 4, and 5.3 strokes putting.
First Round Leader (0.5u)
- Russell Henley +4500
- Cam Davis +7000
- Sebastian Munoz +9000
My affinity for ditching collared shirts in favor of henleys started at last year’s CJ Cup when Russell Henley entered Sunday in prime position to win at Shadow Creek before Jason Kokrak exploded to surpass him. Henley is always a FRL consideration for me, so on a bona fide second shot course, I’ll roll with the approach specialist one more time before he even has a chance to collapse on Sunday. Cam Davis and Sebastian Munoz also have the ability to aggressively fire at pins and get a streaky putter on Thursday.
Top 20 (2u)
- Sam Burns +100
- Lucas Glover +500
I don’t always bet Top 20s but in a limited field with no cut, I think it’s a fun market with good upside to keep things interesting for 4 days. Sam Burns was the last guy to miss my outright card, but the way he’s been striking the ball despite a cold putter the last two weeks, I don’t see him falling far outside of contention in another week that suits his ability to make birdies in bunches. Lucas Glover is my favorite low-cost value play at the bottom of the board, with more insight in Bombs & Values.
- Sam Burns ($9,800)
- Tony Finau ($9,600)
- Lucas Glover ($6,000)
It was a difficult choice for me to go Finau over Burns from an outright perspective, but an easy choice in DFS to start my core with these two, who carry the recent form and comp course history needed to contend at this course. I believe it’s necessary to include at least one player in your lineups at $6,300 or less on Draft Kings given how soft the pricing is, and Glover to me is the guy with the highest floor, even if the putter continues to be lost. I’ll be mixing and matching guys like Morikawa and Xander at the top, but this core should provide enough flexibility to get creative.