Final Bets RSM Classic

My Final Thoughts: 2022 RSM Classic Final Betting Card and DFS Plays

I’m not especially proud of my card this week. I normally end up betting 4-7 outrights per week, but every single week regardless of the number of outright bets is exactly the same: 3 units in, 24 units out if any of them win. Last week, I only fit 3 players on the outright card because I bet Sam Burns, the odds on favorite and this week is the exact opposite with 12 players on the card, starting with Mackenzie Hughes with the shortest odds at 65/1. At the end of the day, I’m just not drawn to a single player under 65/1 this week and think they all have very clear, conceivable holes in their games right now that would prevent them from winning. On the flipside, there were about 20 players this week over 100/1 who I thought could very easily pull the Tyler Duncan or Robert Streb script and win this event as a long shot by way of a hot putter or streaky irons.

There is good reason for the course history guys like Webb, Kisner, Kirk, and Streb to come in at an inflated number this week, and many of them will be popular plays this week. They’ve each proven that success can be repeatable here regardless of form if you are comfortable and familiar with the course. I’ve decided to go in a different direction. I think there is a ton of uncertainty with the weather this week, and similar to what we saw at Bermuda, there’s a sizeable wave of players that may get eliminated from contention off the bat if they draw a poor split with the tee times – we just don’t really know which wave is going to benefit most at this point in time. Then there’s the fact that this event largely comes down to a putting contest every year, which inherently discredits any ball striking advantage we would typically want to pay up for at the top of the board. All of those factors contributed to me just saying screw it, I’ll fade the entire top of the board under 60/1 and just take my chances on a bunch of guys at longshot odds who I believe are just as viable to win as many of the players in the 30-40/1 range this week. At the end of the day, I’m always going to put 3 units in on outrights every single week, and this week I just so happened to click on 12 names before I got to spend a full 3 units. Here is a look back at that final card!

Outrights (3u)

  • Mackenzie Hughes +6500
  • Seamus Power +6600
  • Mito Pereira +6600
  • Patrick Rodgers +8000
  • Alex Smalley +10000
  • Hayden Buckley +12000
  • Henrik Norlander +12500
  • Denny McCarthy +13000
  • Cam Davis +14000
  • Hank Lebioda +15000
  • Kramer Hickock +18000
  • Nick Watney +30000

Holy crap that was a lot of names to type. I can’t possibly elaborate on the rationale for every single one of these plays, they just all jumped out to me as players who were mispriced/undervalued and displayed good recent form on short comp courses which should be translatable to this week. I can definitively say that I will be placing 0 live bets this week. If I can’t get a sweat from this CVS receipt of outrights, then just bring on the off season and catch me at Sentry.

First Round Leader (0.5u)

  • Sebastian Munoz +4000 (SS)
  • Chesson Hadley +8000 (SS)
  • Kramer Hickock +5000 (P)
  • Nick Watney +8000 (P)

I really don’t like that the FRL market is split into two separate courses because it essentially slashes everyone’s odds in half, which defeats the purpose of why I like betting FRLs in the first place. But in any case, I’m betting Sebastian Munoz who had one of the best finishes of his career on this course, along with three other players in Hadley, Hickock, and Watney who I just think are good values.

Finishing Positions (3u)

  • Hayden Buckey T20 +500
  • Cam Davis T30 +320
  • Nick Watney T40 +300

All players featured in Bombs & Values, it was hard to narrow down who to back in the finishing position market, but these players jumped out to me as the three names I am highest on proportional to where the books have set their value.

DFS Core

  • Seamus Power ($8,200)
  • Alex Smalley ($7,100)
  • Nick Watney ($6,200)

This is going to be my largest player pool of the year, and I’m going to likely be playing the most lineups I’ve played all year for this event as well. There are just so many players who fit the profile as a fairway finder who can get hot putting, and those are the two baseline requirements we’ve historically seen to find success here. So considering ownership projections and pricing value, Seamus Power, Alex Smalley, and Nick Watney are the guys I’ll want the most exposure to. Looking around Twitter, I may be on Watney island this week, but I absolutely love this spot for him (he’s also stone minimum on FanDuel for what it’s worth). I have less conviction at the top of the board, but Webb Simpson, Cam Smith, Corey Conners, and Joaquin Nieman are the guys at the top of the board I’ve been mixing and matching into lineups.