Final Bets Sanderson Farms Championship

My Final Thoughts: 2022 Sanderson Farms Championship Final Betting Card and DFS Plays

Week 2 of the 2022 PGA Tour season is upon us already. Between the lack of notable studs at the top of the odds board, influx of rookies from the Korn Ferry Tour, and general framework of Sanderson Farms being a second shot course & putting contest, there’s a lot of randomness and uncertainty to navigate when handicapping this week. So although I’m feeling good about where I’ve landed with my player pool, it’s hard to be overly confident this week when Hayden Buckley and David Lipksy could just as easily pop up without warning, gain 9 strokes putting, and snatch this tournament away from the rightful winners of Keegan Bradley or Mito Pereira. If things do go according to plan however, we should look out for the top Tee To Green players with added distance off the tee and ability to catch a spike putting week to emerge on top. With that in mind, here’s a final look back at my final plays for the 2022 Sanderson Farms Championship.

Outrights (3u)

  • Mito Pereira (+3200)
  • Cameron Davis (+3500)
  • Keegan Bradley (+4000)
  • Luke List (+8000)
  • Matt Wallace (+12500)
  • Russell Knox (+15000)

Months from now we will look back and laugh at the value that was 32/1 for the Chilean Prodigy Mito Pereira who stands as a head and shoulder talent above the rest of this unimposing field. Over the last 4 months, Mito has picked up 2 wins (on the Korn Ferry Tour), a T4 at the Olympics (losing in the Bronze medal playoff), and three finishes of T6 or better over 5 PGA Tour starts. You can say what you want about the level of competition he’s faced in these events, but the fact remains it’s hard to be playing golf at a higher level than how Mito is currently playing. You can’t even chalk these results up to getting streaky with a volatile putter, because that’s the only area of his game that’s held him back from winning even more events. He is a long hitter, accurate with his driver, precise with his irons, and good around the greens. I try to stay neutral and objective with my golf picks week to week, but I am definitely building up a bias for Pereira and will be happy to pump up the #MiToMovement throughout the year.

If for some reason Mito doesn’t win, I’ve also spread outrights across Keegan Bradley, Luke List, Matt Wallace, and Russell Knox, who you can read up more on in the Tournament Preview and Bombs & Values. They are each bonded by ineptitude on the greens which typically overshadows their top-tier T2G games, but as I’ve said all week, if Sergio & Champ can spike with their putter on these greens, then any one of these guys can as well.

Cameron Davis was the last man to make my card. This was a toss up for me to either play 2 guys in the 60-65/1 range (which I’d narrowed down between Aaron Wise, Emiliano Grillo, or Scott Stallings), or just the one at 35/1, and ultimately I just felt like the win equity for Davis who’s just a couple months removed from winning on a very similarly laid out putting contest course in Detroit Golf Club was substantial enough. The ball striking numbers aren’t where I’d love them to be, nor is the 35/1 price tag, but this is a bet on course fit, course history, and raw talent for Cameron Davis, who should position himself to make plenty of birdies this week.

Top 20 (1u)

  • Russell Knox (+700)

Over the course of the week, all signs have continued to point me back in the direction of Russell Knox. Standing here on Wednesday after 4 days of research and modeling, I think Knox is the most severely under-valued player in this field, whether it be in DFS, his outright odds, or the Top 20 market. Knox is a veteran with solid course history here, he’s coming off a week at the Fortinet Championship where he was leading the field in ball striking through the first two days, and ranks 3rd in this field in the all important Proximity range of 100-150. He’s a 2-time Tour winner, including the WGC HSBC in 2015, and at these odds, there just aren’t that many other viable options around him that can safely give you his floor. As always, he can easily play himself out of this tournament with his putter, but on these more simplified greens at CC of Jackson, I’m optimistic about a strong showing from Knox this week.

First Round Leader (0.6u)

  • Sebastian Munoz +5000
  • Aaron Wise +6000
  • Davis Thompson +13000
  • Cameron Young +15000

I never have to think about playing Sebastian Munoz as first round round leader, but it’s very reassuring to trot into this Thursday knowing we’re back at the site of his only career PGA Tour victory, so I’ve already started to count my money. Aaron Wise is a FOMO bet, being one of the last players to miss my outright card, but I do think he’s a great fit for this course. I’m cautiously observing how the broomstick putter changes his abysmal putting status on Tour, but if there are any signs of improvement on the greens, Wise can earn himself a promotion off my outright blacklist. If Munoz and Wise can’t get it done, I do think there’s value on taking a flyer on some of the young new Korn Ferry grads. Davis Thompson has already achieved first round leader status in his young career at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in July, which profiles similarly to CC of Jackson, and Cameron Young is just a young freak talent who dominated the KFT in spurts last season and has the skillset to go low one round at a time.

DFS Core

  • Mito Pereira ($9,900)
  • Keegan Bradley ($9,700)
  • Russell Knox ($6,500)

This is the easiest core decision I’ve ever had to make and will be 100% exposed to this core 3 this week. Mito and Keegan were immediate bets for me Monday morning and their DFS pricing appropriately matches their value on the odds board. I believe they are both all but guaranteed to gain strokes T2G on this course, and their finishing position will depend on how far their putters will allow them to go. At $6,500, Russell Knox is my favorite value play, and I believe he has very safe upside to make it through the cut, as long as he’s not a complete train wreck on the greens.