Final Bets WWT Championship at Mayakoba

My Final Thoughts: 2022 World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba Final Betting Card and DFS Plays

Next Sunday I will be seeing Mr. World Wide himself, Pitbull, at a music festival in Fort Lauderdale (it’s a long story). This Sunday, I will be sweating winners at the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba, where I just played several months ago. Stars are aligning here people!!!

It’s been hard to narrow down the field this week, as there are a lot of different ways you can go about attacking El Camaleon, as long as you can keep your tee shot inbounds. Without any major weather concerns in the forecast, I expect a birdie fest pushing beyond -20 for a winning score, which means an emphasis on birdies & opportunities gained. Hopefully the guys I landed on below will stack up well to generate birdie opportunities on this short coastal track. Let’s look back at it!

Outrights (3u)

  • Abraham Ancer +2700
  • Joaquin Niemann +5000
  • Mito Pereira +6000
  • Justin Rose +6000
  • Russell Henley +6600
  • Kevin Streelman +10000

This might be the chalkiest card I’ve put out all year long. There is nothing unique about the players I’m on this week, apart from the value looking very solid after the Monday-Wednesday drift. I have seen Kevin Streelman as low as 50/1 and Abraham Ancer, who opened at 27/1 on FanDuel, has closed as the solo favorite at 15/1. Sometimes it pays to have your research all done on Sunday, ready to snipe when odds open Monday morning.

I don’t have conviction that any one of these players in particular will win this week, mainly because the path to win here has been pretty ambiguous, but also because Justin Thomas is playing, and not on my card. I have every reason to believe that Abe Ancer will hang around all week though, given his track record here and all other short, positional courses. I’ve also decided to play all of the Chileans this week. Mito Pereira is exactly the same player as Viktor Hovland in terms of Distance, Accuracy, and APP profile, so I’m optimistic he’ll do well on the course Hovland is returning to for his title defense. Niemann was the last man on my card, but I progressively got more and more behind him looking at his accuracy splits on shorter courses, his putting bump on Paspalum greens, and his overall strong results on coastal comp courses.

Justin Rose has great splits on shorter courses and has proven he can get white hot with the putter, which is what you need at a birdie fest. Russell Henley & Kevin Streelman were featured in the Tournament Preview and Bombs & Values.

First Round Leader (0.5u)

  • Russell Knox +7500
  • Emiliano Grillo +8000
  • Brice Garnett +10000
  • Denny McCarthy +12000

It’s a sad week whenever Sebastian Munoz isn’t in the field, but sometimes you just have to improvise. Russell Knox was the last player to miss my outright card, which usually means you’re first on the FRL card. He has exceptional course history and looked very solid at the Bermuda Championship last week. Coastal Elite, Emiliano Grillo is also a perfect profile fit for Mayakoba, and tends to pop in the first round. Garnett and McCarthy are players who can keep it in the fairways and get hot on these greens to post a number.

Finishing Positions (2u)

  • Russell Knox T20 +300
  • Tyler Duncan T40 +275

I’m really surprised to see how long Russell Knox’s number is this week, considering he was chalk at 50/1 last week, looked good with a T12, and enters Mayakoba with arguably the best course history of any non-winner. I do have concerns whether he can put 4 low rounds together to win this thing, but I’m much more open to the idea of a T20, considering he’s never finished worse than T37 here in any of his last 7 trips, with 3 T10s in that span. Tyler Duncan also carries a high floor for his price, entering with a streak of 10 consecutive events where he’s gained strokes OTT. He’s also coming in fresh off a T14 at the Sanderson Farms and has never missed a cut at Mayakoba in 4 prior appearances.

DFS Core

  • Russell Knox ($7,300)
  • Kevin Streelman ($7,200)
  • Tyler Duncan ($6,400)

It’s gonna be a chalk build week for me this week in DFS. I told myself I would do the opposite of that when previewing the tournament because it’s an open playing field for so many different types of players to contend, and yet here I am going back to the safest plays I can find. I just really like players who go to a short track with great, consistent short course history. It’s very repeatable for fairway finders to make cuts at these shorter events as it turns out. So with that, I’ll be most exposed to my two placement bets in Russell Knox & Tyler Duncan, as well as my longest outright, Kevin Streelman. From here, I’ll mix and match at the top between JT, Hovland, and Ancer, and throw in some leverage pivots like Henrik Stenson, Guido Migliozzi, and Justin Rose to differentiate a bit.