Final Bets Genesis Invitational

My Final Thoughts: The 2021 Genesis Invitational Final Betting Card, OAD, And DFS Plays

We are straight vibin our way into Los Angeles for the 2021 Genesis Invitational on the heels of a Daniel Berger banner victory at the AT&T Pro-Am. But like starting a pitcher in baseball, it pays to have a short memory and move on to the future. Just kidding, I’m gonna hold on to that Berger win for awhile, and had we not learned from our past mistakes, we never would’ve gotten there.

This week we’re flying relatively blind without the aid of a prophecy, but no matter, we’re rolling the dice on Bombers with Short Game to go for that repeat. The dust has settled, the ink has dried, and we’re left with the below action for the 2021 Genesis Invitational.

Outrights

  • Bryson DeChambeau +1700
  • Joaquin Niemann +5000
  • Bubba Watson +5000
  • Matthew Wolff +8000
  • Carlos Ortiz +9000
  • Si Woo Kim +10000

It’s incredibly rare that I bet a player south of 20/1, just by my own personal policy. I’ve found over time that as long as the guys who start in the teens do not go wire-to-wire, you can often get a better number on them if you wait to jump in live. And ironically the last time I reached for a sub-20/1 outright, it was for Bryson at the 2020 Masters (womp). But if the theme of this article is amnesia (it isn’t), then it makes perfect sense that I’m back starting my card with Bryson DeChambeau.

I wrote up Matthew Wolff and Carlos Ortiz in Bombs & Values, but I’ve been talking about Carlos Ortiz since last weekend for all his measurables here. It would not surprise me at all if Ortiz came away with a victory this week, and looking around the industry, he seems to be the guy the community has rallied behind, with that number now dropping to +7000.

Joaquin Niemann and Bubba Watson fall into that second tier, in-between range where they’re neither Bombs nor Faves, but when I looked at the other players in this range (Scott, Morikawa, Hovland, Scheffler, Hideki, Spieth), Joaquin and Bubba stood out to me as the best values with outright win potential for their prices. When the tournament kicks off, I am going to still eye this range, as well as anyone else from the Top 10 in this Field if I can capitalize on a discounted number from a slow start. But for now, it feels good to go into this tournament backing Bryson, Bubba, and Niemann at the top.

One last name that crept onto my card was Si Woo Kim. I wrote him up early in the week as a potential Bomb play, and the more I researched, the more I liked. He’s #8 T2G in this loaded field, and #1 in both SG: ARG and Scrambling, which I think is crucial here. He had a great T3 finish here 2 years ago, where he shot a Thursday 64 and Field-low 65 on Sunday. He’s shown the ability to go low on this course over multiple recent rounds, and has 20 T11-or-better finishes over the last 5 years, including his win at The AmEx just 4 events ago.

Matchups

  • Carlos Ortiz -106 > Cameron Tringale
  • Bubba Watson -137 > Cameron Davis
  • Si Woo Kim -143 > Brendon Todd

I never know where the matchups are going to take me until I see what the books are offering. This week, none of the plus-odds player matchups really caught my eye, so I decided I’d pick the three I liked the most and parlay them. There’s no such thing as a “safe” parlay, but I think I’ve removed a lot of risk from these picks this week. Last week we nailed the matchup parlay 3/3, and boosted the season matchup record to 12-6-1. This week we’re looking for two straight sweeps.

In the first matchup, Cameron Tringale is actually a slight favorite over Carlos Ortiz so we get some slight value on the odds. I loved Tringale last week, mainly due to the strength of field. He has a tendency to fade into the mediocre cut-maker range in these bigger fields, so I’m really betting on Carlos Ortiz to T20 here in order to win this matchup. I bet him outright, so I like his chances.

Bubba over Cameron Davis seems like a layup. Bubba comes in with decent form to a track he can play in his sleep and has won twice at in the last 5 years. Cameron Davis performs best at birdie-fests, which this is decidedly not. He is also not a great Poa putter and MC’d in his only past trip to Riviera. The future is bright for Cam, but I don’t think the track suits him this week.

And after I just finished singing Si Woo’s praises, I couldn’t resist doubling down on his matchup either. I was tricked into playing Brendon Todd at Winged Foot last year when I heard hitting fairways would be difficult and playing from the rough would be impossible. He went on to hit 75% of fairways, by far the best in the field, and it really didn’t make a difference as he finished T23. As bullish as I am on distance this week, I would say T23 is probably Todd’s ceiling again at The Genesis, and I expect Si Woo to clear that easily here.

First Round Leader

  • Russell Henley +7000
  • Si Woo Kim +8000
  • Sebastian Munoz +10000
  • Talor Gooch +100000
  • Dylan Frittelli +10000

Munoz auto-bet aside, I’m looking for players who have shown the ability to go low at Riviera in the past. Talor Gooch shot a 64 here last year, Si Woo and Frittelli shot 64 here in 2019, and Hustle Henley shot a 62 in 2019 as well. I think it’ll take a 65 or better to lead after R1, so I like my chances on this group, knowing they’ve got the potential in them and line up well here.

One And Done

  • Xander Schauffele

Xander comes into The Genesis on a ridiculous streak of 6 T5 finishes in his last 8 events. He has solid history at this event with finishes of T23, T15, T9 in his 3 career trips here. And even still, he’s only the 5th favorite in this Field behind DJ, Rahm, Rory, and JT, so you can’t expect him to go too over-owned. He’s got a great all around game, but his strengths off the tee and in the short game (especially on Poa) stack him up well for another strong finish this week. His inability to close out a tournament caused me to shy away from him as an Outright, but you gotta love his chances to place high this week.

DFS Core

  • Tony Finau ($9,300)
  • Carlos Ortiz ($7,800)
  • Patrick Rodgers ($6,700)

I think Tony Finau is going to finish T5 this week, and the way the pricing’s been rolled out, you can fit another player above his salary in your lineup to ensure you afford for the winner too. Carlos Ortiz was locked into this lineup a week ago, and even if he is a chalk play, you’d be hard pressed to find better measurables for this course in the $7K range. You’re also going to need a $6K guy this week to afford the big names, and Patrick Rodgers is by far my favorite value play of the week with his combination of distance, putting, and course history.

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