Final Bets The Masters

My Final Thoughts: The Masters 2021 Final Betting Card, OAD, And DFS Plays

We have reached the end of a very long #content week for the greatest show in golf, The Masters. As a recap, here’s all the ground I’ve covered to prime the first Major of the 2021 season:

I have a lot to say about The Masters and how I got to my final outrights, props, OAD, and DFS plays, so let’s skip straight to it!

Outrights

  • Tony Finau +3500
  • Viktor Hovland +4000
  • Paul Casey +4500
  • Matt Fitzpatrick +6600
  • Francesco Molinari +10000
  • Gary Woodland +10000
  • Marc Leishman +10000

Last week I endorsed Abraham Ancer as a fade, and this week I’m endorsing Tony Finau to win the biggest tournament in all of golf. These are strange times, but no, I have not been hacked.

I did not start this week thinking I’d be betting Finau to win, but I knew I was going to add one Outright to the list of 6 Futures I’d compiled since last November, and that it was going to be in the 20-40/1 range. I thought about Patrick Cantlay, but I don’t like his East Coast/West Coast splits. I thought about Xander Schauffele, but I think of him as the exact same player as Tony Finau with worse odds. I thought about Webb and Reed for their great short games, but just don’t love the current state of their ball striking. And so I landed on Tony Finau. The two most recent comp courses which put a premium on Distance and Short Game were Torrey Pines and Riviera, and Finau finished Runner Up in both. He’s #4 overall in my model and I just think despite his proven ability to not win, he’s been knocking on the door long enough to knock it down soon. He has back to back MC’s coming in which has driven his number down, but here’s the thing, every category he lost strokes in at THE PLAYERS (T2G, APP, ARG), he corrected and gained in the next week at Valero. At Valero, he lost strokes OTT and Putting, which he had not done in 4 straight events prior, so I expect him to turn those flaws around this week. We also should have expected some look-ahead from Finau, so I think he benefits from an early exit and more prep after Valero.

That’s a lot of words, but my first Tony Finau outright bet of the year commands a longwinded explanation. Not to be overshadowed by the Finau soliloquy, but my conviction pick of the week to win is Paul Casey. I have been screaming from the mountain tops since the API last month to bet Paul Casey to win the 2021 Masters. Every conversation I’ve had with a human being this week about the Masters has started with “Please make sure Paul Casey is on your betting card.” I’ve harped on this in every article I’ve written this week, but Paul Casey has played 6 events in 2021, and his finishes are: T8, 1, T12, T5, T10, T5. He likely would have won THE PLAYERS if not for a first round quadruple bogey on the 17th. He has a reputation for choking Majors despite doing everything he needed to do to win the 2020 PGA Championship before Collin Morikawa went nuclear. He’s a long, accurate ball striker with a short game that is peaking at the right time. There’s nothing you can say to me about Paul Casey that would convince he won’t contend to win this golf tournament come Sunday.

I may have wasted all of my words on Finau and Casey, so let me just say that I’m very happy with the numbers I have on Hovland and Fitzpatrick, I really like their fits for what Augusta demands, and expect these guys to hang in contention all week.

Molinari, Woodland, and Leishman are essentially dead bets I hopped on too early and now have to suffer the consequences of bad value. Today, I do not think any of these guys can win, so this is no longer much of an endorsement. If I do hit on any of these guys, it’s by accident, and I’ll probably just give it back to charity.

First Round Leader

  • Louis Oosthuizen +5000
  • Francesco Molinari +7000
  • Sebastian Munoz +8000
  • CT Pan +10000

I didn’t need to think strategically about Munoz FRL, obviously he’s a weekly fixture here. But I love that he’s in an early group pairing, coming off a T19 in his Masters debut last November, riding a T9 in his last start at the Valero, and hanging on an 80/1 number, so the vibes are strong this week.

Beyond that, I’ve also added CT Pan, Louis Oosthuizen, and Francesco Molinari who each come to Augusta in good form with a history of low rounds in prior appearances here. It’s rare that someone gets a solo FRL at Augusta, so I’m hoping to at least chop with some of these longer-odds guys.

Props

  • Dustin Johnson, Patrick Reed, Sergio Garcia, and Jordan Spieth to make the cut +150
  • Sebastian Munoz – First Round Top 10 +650
  • Tony Finau – Top 5 +600
  • Matt Jones – Top 20 +450
  • Stewart Cink – Top 30 +350

I am replacing the usual Matchup plays this week with some Props instead since the good folks at Draft Kings have gone overboard with what they’re offering for The Masters.

The first is a Draft Kings promo, which I’m hoping is free money considering it does not take much to make it through the Cut at The Masters, and DJ, Reed, Sergio, and Spieth all come into this week with great form.

Then we have another layup, offering First Round Top 10 odds at +650 on the FRL GOAT, Sebastian Munoz. I cannot wait to fix my Masters App on the Sebastian Munoz pairing all morning long on Thursday to watch the First Round Double Dip unfold.

And what would a Major be without some placement props. Tony Finau T5 bets are the Bonds of the Golf Betting Market; it’s low risk and it pays out over time. My conscience was guilty backing a never-winner as an Outright, so I figured I better double down with a T5 and hedge that bet now. Matt Jones is my favorite DFS value of the week sitting at $6,300, and his place on the odds board doesn’t stray too far from that valuation either, so +450 for a T20 seems like a pretty good deal to me. If the greens are as firm and fast as everyone says, that will play into Jones’ strengths as a a great Bogey-Avoider, 3-Putt-Avoider, Scrambler, and all around good Short Game player. Then last we have Stewart Cink, who was buried with all the Masters Seniors in this range, overlooking the fact that he has already won on Tour this season at the Safeway and is coming into this week on the heels of a T19 at the Honda.

One And Done

  • Tony Finau

I was convinced that I was going to play Jordan Spieth in OAD all week, however as the week went on, I realized that if I pick him and he wins, there’s only a handful of people I can really jump past in OAD, because all signs point to him being 25%+ owned this week. The course history is obviously there, the recent form is obviously there, even the adjustments to the greens playing faster and firmer are going to benefit him more than most, and if you look ahead to future events this season, it’s clear that this is the best time to play Jordan Spieth.

So I’m not going to play Jordan Spieth.

Golf is hard to predict, and when everyone expects a certain outcome to happen, usually it doesn’t happen. So as the community zigs to Spieth, I zag to Finau, who nobody is talking about or confident in. Tony has great history at The Masters. He finished T10 in his first start here playing basically on one leg after famously rolling his ankle in Wednesday’s Par-3 competition after celebrating a hole in one. In his next trip, he followed that up with a T5 when fully healthy. I’m willing to throw away last November’s T38 as anomaly conditions, which means Finau has a very safe T10 floor at the Masters when played in April. I’m sure I’ve overthought this, but there’s no turning back now. Break a leg, Tony!

DFS Core

  • Tony Finau ($9,100)
  • Paul Casey ($7,800)
  • Matt JonesĀ ($6,300)

I was a Tony Finau FRL away from writing him up in every section of my card, so yes I’m high on a bounce back from him this week, especially understanding the ownership leverage he projects in this range sandwiched between more popular plays in Reed, Webb, Hovland, and Berger around him, considering they’ve all, you know, won a tournament within the last year. I’ll also need some leverage in the core because Paul Casey is by all accounts going to be the most over-owned player on DK this week. I don’t care, because I think he’s going to win, but I am making sure to surround him with less chalk. Matt Jones rounds out the core as a guy who also projects to be under-owned, but fits the course well and is coming off a victory in his last start at the Honda Classic in order to qualify.