Bombs & Values Sony Open

Sony Open – Bombs & Values

What’s the fun in golf gambling if you’re not taking a couple of big swings? Here’s a list of players I like for DFS salary relief and Outright/T10 upside at longshot odds at the Sony Open.

DFS Values (Draft Kings Pricing)

Brian Harman ($7,800)

Harman is a super steady play this week, having made the cut in his last 12/13 events. His lone MC came at the RSM Classic due to some uncharacteristically bad putting, despite gaining 1.4 Strokes T2G. He also has solid history at the Sony Open – his last 5 finishes: T32, MC, T4, T20, T13.

With Driving Distance a relative non-factor here this week, I’m putting a lot of stock behind shorter hitters that tend to be overlooked OTT. Harman is T7 in SG: Putting over last 36 rounds (that includes the RSM blow up) and T25 in the field in Fairways Gained, Proximity Gained 125-175, and Par 4 Scoring. A solid cut-maker with T20 upside in the $7K range is tough to pass up.

Tom Hoge ($7,300)

I’ve never felt inclined to play Tom Hoge before, but this week he’s my favorite value play. He finished T12 at Sony last year and 3rd in 2018. Looking at the last 36 rounds played on Bermuda for this field, he’s 14th in SG: Total and better than field average in every major SG category. He’s also 4th in the Field in Opportunities Gained, last 36 rounds.

He’s missed a few cuts in recent events, but the Approach and Putting have been consistently strong of late. At $7,300, there’s plenty to like about Tom Hoge.

Michael Thompson ($6,900)

Michael Thompson quietly snuck his way into last week’s 1st place, $200K-winning GPP lineup at the Sentry TOC. You probably forgot he was even in the field after a first round 73, but he rebounded to shoot -15 over the last 3 days of the tournament. There’s something to be said about the jet lag narrative in Hawaii tournaments – it’s played in a time zone nobody’s quite used to and because of that, I’m willing to give a slight bump to the players in this field playing their second consecutive Hawaii tournament. Of the other Sentry TOC contestants in the $6K range (Gay, Taylor, Streb, Werenski, Swafford), I’ll take Thompson’s combination of Recent Form and Course History here.

Chase Seiffert ($6,200)

This is a pure value play for me at this price, if you’re looking deep for budget relief in your lineups. Despite the near-stone minimum price, Seiffert’s recent form is slightly above field average in all major SG categories, including 34th SG: T2G and 18th SG: Ball Striking. In his first trip to the Sony Open last year, he finished T32.

His Around The Green game is $6,200-worthy, but nothing else about his game justifies this price tag. Seiffert puts the ball in play off the tee and hits his irons well. If he can steadily hit Greens In Regulation this week, he will get through the cut and pay off his price.

Bombs (Odds: DK Sportsbook)

Talor Gooch (+9000 / +650 Top 10)

Talor Gooch is a very good golfer, most people just don’t know it yet. He’s above average in all facets of the game (OTT, APP, ARG, P) and steadily improving year over year, having two Top 5s in his last 4 events. I don’t think we’re going to see Gooch at +9000 for much longer, so I’m jumping on while I still can.

On Par 70 courses, he ranks 13th in SG: APP and 30th in SG: T2G. He also ranks T15 in Proximity 150-200, a key stat for this week.

Talor gang or die, who’s ready to sweat some Gooch?

Henrik Norlander (+20000 Outright / +1100 Top 10)

The Bad: Henrik Norlander has MC’d in his last 3 consecutive events and MC’d in 6 of his last 8 starts.

The Good: In his last 2 trips to the Sony Open, he’s finished T9 and T20 and he has four Top-10 finishes in the last calendar year.

Henrik Norlander can sink your DFS lineup, but he also has legit T10 equity, which is why I like him as a longshot bet over a DFS play.

Brian Stuard (+25000 Outright / +1200 Top 10)

Brian Stuard has made it through the cut his last 4 trips to the Sony Open and has two Top 10s in the last 3 years. That’s some pretty good upside for a guy at +25000. Overall, he’s a very capable putter and a reliable ball striker. His recent results won’t jump off the page, but that’s because he has a very particular course fit. When we look at his recent performance on Short, Par 70 Bermuda courses (which Waialae CC is), Stuard ranks #1 in the Field in Fairways Gained and Proximity 100-125. That’s what we like to see from a +25000 bomb!