Russell Henley (+4000, $8,700)
It’s that time of year again where I’m tearing through my closet, removing all collared shirts, and replacing them with henleys. I don’t know how many roads there are in Hawaii, but I know they all lead to Hustle Henley this week. I’m all in. Here’s how he ranks in the Sony Open Field, last 36 Rounds:
- SG: Ball Striking – 1
- SG: Approach – 1
- SG: Tee To Green – 1
I’m gonna pause here for a second to remind you he’s +4000 and $8,700 on Draft Kings. Okay let’s keep going.
- Bogey Avoidance – 1
- Scrambling Gained – 1
- Opportunities Gained – 3
- GIRs Gained – 5
- Fairways Gained – 12
- Proximity Gained (Total/100-125/125-150/150-175) – 5/8/2/4
I could go on but he’s better than the field at everything and he’s underpriced – you get the point. The only reason I can fathom for him being priced here is because he missed the cut at this event last year. If you recall last year’s event, Thursday and Friday were played in gale force winds, not too different from the conditions we saw at the past Bermuda Championship. If the conditions at Kapaula this past weekend were any indication, we should expect a more scorable tournament. If you need, me I’ll be saving some #HenleyGivenSunday tweets to drafts.
Kevin Kisner (+3300, $8,800)
Kisner has made 5 consecutive cuts here, including three Top-5s in that span. His T4 finish last year came despite an uncharacteristic -0.9 SG: Putting for the tournament. Expecting some positive putting regression, he can only improve from a T4 this time around!
Zach Johnson (+4500, $8,500)
I’ve done exactly 2 Custom Mixed Condition Fantasy National models in my lifetime. The first told me Martin Laird was undervalued at the Sentry TOC and he went to finish T17 as a near-optimal DFS play. This week it’s Zach Johnson.
In his last 36 Rounds against this field, he’s 4th in Bogey Avoidance, 12th in Birdies Gained, 8th in SG: Total, 7th in SG: Approach, 4th in Total Proximity, and 2nd in SG: Putting. His Driving stats don’t jump out, but they don’t need to when the rest of his game is this strong right now, especially on this short Par 70 course. The course history also checks out with three T15s in the last 5 years.
I don’t think I’ll bet him at these odds, but he’ll be a nice GPP leverage play at $8,500 on DK.
Patton Kizzire (+8000, $7,700)
I don’t like playing Patton Kizzire unless I have to but unfortunately after looking at the stats, I have no other choice. He’s a previous winner here which is always a bonus off the top. He followed that up with a T13 in 2019 before missing the cut in last year’s throwaway wind conditions. Kizzire has made 6 consecutive cuts coming into this event, which include a T10 at RSM and T11 at the Houston Open. He’s exceptional on Bermuda, gaining 0.47 Total Strokes vs the field. Granted, his Putter is masking some fairly concerning Ball Striking numbers, but the upside is there for this price. He’s T10 in Birdies or Better Gained and nearly dead last in Doubles or Worse, which is a perfect summation of what you sign up for when betting Patton Kizzire.
Chez Reavie (+10000, $7,400)
In the season finale of “I Don’t Care That He Missed The Cut Last Year, It Was Windy”, we have Chez Reavie, who carries two Top 10s to his name in the last four years here. He does not hit the ball far (122nd in the Field in Driving Distance), but he makes up for it with elite Approach numbers (3rd in Fairways Gained, 8th in GIRs Gained, 2nd in Proximity). If we dive further and look at the Field’s recent performance on Par 70 Bermuda courses, Chez ranks #1 in SG: OTT (!), SG: Ball Striking, and SG: T2G. His recent finishes are not inspiring, but he is T3 SG: APP in this field over the last 36 rounds. If he can put together an average Putting performance, another T10 is coming.