With Jon Rahm now withdrawn from The American Express golf tournament, the board is primed with value all over. 6 of the last 10 winners here have opened at 80/1+, so no better time than now to throw up some bombs! All prices below are from Draft Kings / DK Sportsbook.
Sam Burns ($8,300)
I usually don’t find a ton of value in the $8K range, but in the case of Sam Burns this week, he may be $1K under-priced. Burns’ odds opened at +7500 before Rahm’s WD, but those odds have taken a tailspin since, going as low as +4500. His DFS price on the other hand, has of course not changed throughout these developments.
The Models love Burns. Looking at his recent form, he’s 4th in SG:TOT, 5th in SG:T2G, 2nd in SG: Ball Striking, and 2nd in SG:OTT. His putting (31st SG:P) is very solid as well.
He’s priced at $8,300 because we haven’t seen him close the deal for a Win or Top 5 recently. But he’s coming off a T7 in his last event at The Houston Open where he held a 54-hole lead and has 3 Top 7s or better in the last calendar year, including a 6th place finish at this event last year. I would take Burns straight up over guys like Rickie, Na, and Champ in the low $9K range so at $8,300, he’ll offer great salary relief.
Doc Redman ($7,500)
Speaking of plummeting odds, Doc opened +12500 pre-Rahm WD and is currently down to +8500. His game stacks up perfectly for Birdie-fests and if this tournament plays anything like it did last year, he should be in for a feast.
Redman comes into this week with three Top-4’s or better in his last 8 events. Like Burns, he’s been getting it done with great ball-striking (9th in the Field) and solid putting (43rd SG:P). His biggest weakness has been SG:ARG, but I’m willing to overlook this stat category as a whole this week, as PGA West has historically not given players too much trouble around the green. In his debut at the event last year, Doc finished T29.
Andrew Landry ($7,000)
One year ago, Andrew Landry shot -26 at PGA West en route to victory. How quickly we forget, as the defending champ is now priced down at $7,000. Granted he’s been wholly unremarkable in the calendar year since, with just one other finish in the Top-25. That one, however, was a solid 4th place finish at the RSM Classic not too long ago. The man clearly has a type for tournaments that rotate between multiple courses so who am I to judge someone who likes a little variety in their life. His last three finishes at The Amex — 1, 28, 2 — go to show that this is his get right spot every new year.
Landry profiles the same as Adam Hadwin here both in Course History and Recent Form last 4-5 events. Adam Hadwin is $8,000. Take the cost savings.
Chesson Hadley ($6,700)
If you’re willing to dismiss the SG:ARG category here like I am, then you’re gonna love Chesson Hadley. At this price, you’re really just asking for him to make it through the cut and finish T40. He profiles best for Bermuda Birdie Fests, and has shown in recent events that he can really get hot with his putter.
Hadley’s better than Field average in all the major stat categories I’m looking for this week (Ball Striking, Approach, Driving Accuracy, Putting, Birdies Gained, Opportunities Gained, and Proximity). Basically aside from SG:ARG, there’s no part of his game that’s going to kill you, and that’s rare to find in the $6K range. For reference, 5 of the Top-9 finishers last year lost strokes on Approach, including the winner, Andrew Landry.
His course history is a mixed bag, but he is coming off of a T29 finish here last year, and has 3 Top-25 or better finishes in his last 7 events.
Roger Sloan ($6,300)
This is as low as I’m willing to go on Draft Kings, but everything I like about Hadley, I also like about Sloan for $400 less. He avoids the bottom 25% of the Field’s rank in all my key stat categories this week, highlighted by a 10th in Total Proximity, 13th in GIRs Gained, and 35th in Fairways gained. He’s a guy you can count on to hit fairways without sacrificing much distance and takes advantage of his opportunities from the fairway.
Just two years ago, he finished T12 here and looked sharp recently at the RSM, Bermuda, and Sanderson Farms. Plenty of upside here at $6,300.
Adam Long (+7500)
That sand save Mackenzie Hughes had at the BMW on 18 to claim the last spot in the Tour Championship sure was something, huh? What a great moment of golf that was for all of us to watch. All of us except Adam Long, who was bumped to 31st in FedEx Cup points and has had to continue his grind for exemptions through the 2021 season. Fast forward to today and Adam Long has missed just one cut in his last 8 events since the BMW, including Top-15s at The US Open, Corales, The Houston Open, and Mayakoba in that span.
A winner at this event just 2 years ago, Adam is far from a Longshot to win again (sorry I couldn’t resist). Love the upside for him here at +7500 this time around.
Brendan Steele (+10000)
It didn’t take much for me to get onboard with Brendan Steele at this price. There should be no question about his recent form after what we saw last week at the Sony Open and he was also on record with the media saying he is in a better place mentally now than his down-stretch towards the end of last season.
Steele has been rock solid at this event historically, making 5 consecutive cuts, including a T6 in 2017. If we look further at his performance on other Comp Courses (TPC Scottsdale, Corales, Quail Hollow, Torrey Pines), it gets even better. He’s 2nd in the Field in Ball Striking and 6th T2G on these courses.
Call him Brendan Steal at this price (I’ll see myself out).
James Hahn (+10000)
No J. Rahm? How about J. Hahn! The local Californian’s stat measurables line up great all around here and I’ll definitely have exposure in both DFS and Betting markets.
His recent form has been great, ranking 16th in the Field T2G, 37th in Ball Striking, and 34th in Short Game. He hasn’t had spectacular results here in the past, but he has made the cut in 2 of his last 3 trips here.
He has not been playing frequently, so some may be quick to forget he has three Top 10s in his last 6 events, which came consecutively at Safeway, Corales, and The Shriners. Huge value at $7,100 or the +10000 odds.
Denny McCarthy (+20000)
Denny McCarthy is the best putter on Tour and he’s sustained that reputation for a couple seasons in a row now. But unlike the other putting specialists on Tour, we’re also starting to see the rest of his game round out too. He has three Top-10 finishes in his last 10 events. That alone is enough upside to take a bite at +20000. But the stats back it up too – he’s 21st in the Field SG:TOT and better than Field average in every major SG: category.
He hasn’t had much success at this event in the past, but maybe the restructuring of courses is the change he needs to break through.
Seung-Yul Noh (+60000)
My man SYN is battle tested, and I mean that literally. In the midst of a hot 2017 season on TOUR, he was drafted to the South Korean military for a 2 year stint before finally making his triumphant return to this very event last year. Tiger Woods turned out just fine after his SEAL training, so why can’t Noh?
Obviously there will still be some rust to shake off, but his 11th place finish at The Travelers last year is enough to convince me to spend $1 on him for a potential $601 return, if he can reach back and find that form of his that won him the 2014 Zurich Classic in a Field that also included the likes of Brooks Koepke, Paul Casey, and Charlie Hoffman.