Final Bets The American Express

The American Express – Final Betting Card

Pencils down, card’s locked. Do your worst, PGA West!

Outrights

  • Matthew Wolff (+3000)
  • Sam Burns (+5500)
  • Adam Long (+7500)
  • Doc Redman (+8500)
  • Brendan Steele (+10000)
  • James Hahn (+10000)
  • Denny McCarthy (+20000)

Same total units on outrights as always, but was able to broaden out the card a little more than usual with longshots very much in play here at The American Express. The bottom of the board guys can sometimes feel like a hope and a prayer, but this week I really do think all 7 are viable to win. I won’t be adding any live bets this week, so hopefully at least 1/7 give us something to sweat on Sunday. All I ask is for one opportunity to use the French Montana “Hahn” GIF.

Matchups

  • Cameron Davis (-125) > Tom Hoge
  • Sam Burns (-106) > Lanto Griffin
  • Brendan Steele (-110) > Matt Jones
  • Sungjae Im (-143) > Kevin Na

After a solid 2-1 showing in each of the first two Matchup plays of the year, I’m adding a bonus 4th this week because I couldn’t narrow it down. I love all 4 of these plays.

Cameron Davis is a bona fide birdie maker, which should suit him very well here. Tom Hoge is a bogey-avoider at best, and I don’t see him keeping up with the Field at this track.

Nothing against Lanto, but I love Burns this week, as noted here and here.

Steele -110 vs Jones is probably my favorite value on the board. Steele should be fairly safe through the cut, whereas Jones I don’t expect to make it through the weekend.

Kevin Na is coming in off a high with his win at the Sony, but Sungjae is objectively a better golfer with better course history here and I expect a bit of a hangover from Na this week.

One And Done

  • Sungjae Im

Patrick Cantlay will be a popular OAD play this week and the other names on the top of the board (Finau, Reed, Wolff, Ancer) will have pretty equal shares thereafter. Sungjae might be a little chalky, but I don’t mind playing it conservative early on at a track he’s finished T10 and T12 his last two starts vs a beatable field. I’ll let other people get cute with Hadwin/Long/Steele/Landry plays and keep myself afloat. If you want to play game theory, Brooks Koepke is your best leverage play, as most players will be saving him for the US Open or PGA Championship later on.

DFS Core

  • Patrick Reed ($10,200)
  • Sam Burns ($8,300)
  • Brendan Steele ($7,300)

Last week I played it a little conservative with the goal of getting 6/6 through the cut. It was successful in that regard, but still didn’t cash.

This week the core is slightly more top heavy, with higher win equity. Burns will be 20-24% owned, but he’s severely miss-priced and opens up salary relief. Reed and Steele also look strong coming in. Not a ton of risk, high upside, and leaves you an average $8K per 3 remaining players to fill out your lineup.