Prop, Lock. & Drop It the Memorial

the Memorial 2021 – Prop Lock & Drop It: Breaking Down This Week’s 5 Best Prop Bets

We’re coming off a hot Prop, Lock, & Drop It showing at the Charles Schwab. Thanks primarily to the demise of Phil Mickelson (and no thanks to Denny McCarthy’s worst putting display of his career), we hit on 3/5 of those best Props of the week. This week we look to keep the prop momentum going with 5 more winners. Let’s get straight to it!

Best Matchup Value (At + Odds)

Hideki Matsuyama (+110) > Patrick Cantlay (theScore Bet)

DraftKings fantasy golf picks: The Memorial Tournament presented by  Nationwide 2015

This bet is starting to make too much sense, which gives me some pause these odds may be a trap. Cantlay happens to be the #1 player in terms of SG: TOT at both the Memorial and Nicklaus Courses in general, but Matsuyama is not far behind ranking #4 and #28 respectively. Both players are tied one apiece when it comes to wins at the Memorial, but Matsuyama has more T15 finishes to his credit (4) than Cantlay (2). Cantlay is a popular play this week due to his spotless history, but he’s riding into town in the midst of a historic slump where he’s missed the cut in 4 of his last 5 events, and lost strokes putting in 6 consecutive starts. Combine that with the fact that Muirfield Village has undergone significant renovations, and this is not at all the time I want to side with course history over recent form. If the greens are as firm and fast as they’re reported to be, I’ll take the guy who won three starts ago on similar greens conditions at Augusta over the guy who missed the cut in the same tournament, and at plus odds no less.

Best T20 Value

Charl Schwartzel +500 (DK Sportsbook)

11 Things You Didn't Know About Charl Schwartzel - Golf Monthly

This is far and away my favorite prop value of the week. Schwartzel checks all the boxes for the Memorial: He’s a very good T2G player who putts best on Bent Grass, rides some hot recent form, and has some great course history at the Memorial. The one knock you could have against Schwartzel is that he looked pretty bad at the Ocean Course last we saw him in the PGA Championship, but if that’s the only reason he’s dipped all the way down here, then you can count me in, as I’m always quick to disregard poor performances in Majors when handicapping non-Major events. You can read further up on all the nice things I had to say about Schwartzel in my Bombs & Values article.

Safest Prop (-120 or Better)

Patrick Reed Top 30 (-115) (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Patrick Reed surges in U.S. Ryder Cup standings after Mexico win | Golf  Channel

There’s a ton going in Reed’s favor for this prop. By now you should know that whenever you put Reed on a Difficult Scoring track in a tough field that puts emphasis on the short game on Bent grass greens, he’s going to perform well. He always has. Looking at course history, he’s played the Memorial 5 times in his career, made the cut every time, and only finished outside the Top 30 once. Since the start of 2020, Reed has missed 7 Cuts, and only once has he followed that up with a finish outside the Top 30 in his next start, which bodes well for a nice rebound coming off the MC at the Charles Schwab last week. In fact, looking back over his last 15 starts dating back to the TOUR Championship, he has finished inside the Top 30 in all 11 events he’s made it through the cut in, so as long as he gets to the weekend, you can start counting your money early on this prop.

Best Bet To Miss The Cut

Sam Burns +200 (DK Sportsbook)

Sam Burns (back) Withdraws from PGA Championship

Going back to the Missed Cut well after hitting pay dirt with Phil Mickelson last week, and this time we go to a prolific cut-misser in Sam Burns. Burns is either great or terrible week to week, which means he should be at coin flip odds to get through the cut, so +200 is some great value to feast on. Over Burns’ last 7 events, he has made the cut 3 times, missed the cut 3 times, and WD’d with a Back Injury at the PGA Championship in what was sure to be a fourth MC. As bad as he was playing, I don’t think you WD from a Major Championship unless you’re actually hurt, so just like with Phil last week, I’m banking on seeing a version of Sam Burns this week who simply goes through the motions, avoids making injuries any worse, and stays sharp enough after a quick two rounds to refocus on Torrey Pines 2 weeks down the road. Injury aside, Burns has only played the Memorial one time, in which he lost 12 strokes T2G. I’m not afraid to roll the dice on this one.

Best Random Prop

Asian Player to finish Top 3: Byeong Hun An +220 (DK Sportsbook)

Byeong Hun An: Making a Nice Living as Tour Grinder

There are 11 Asian players in the field this week. They are Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, Si Woo Kim, CT Pan, KH Lee, Byeong Hun An, Haotong Li, Takumi Kanaya, Sung Kang, Xinjun Zhang, and KJ Choi. Just going off of recent form and general course history, this is a 6 man race for the Top 3, with everyone after An on that list effectively out of the picture. While I do expect Matsuyama to have a very good outing this week, none of the other players on this short list really jumped out at me in my research. It wouldn’t shock me at all to see Im, Kim, Pan, and Lee all stutter out the gates here, and open the door for the Jack Nicklaus killer, Memorial crusher, and ARG savant himself, Byeong Hun An, to finish top 3 amongst this bunch. He has the advantage of Distance over most of these players, and is a player I’ve already identify as a DFS Value target this week.